ALTERNATIVE ENERGY, METALS/MINING, AND INDUSTRIALS

We look to serve our clients through a combination of differentiated supply/demand analysis, as well as deep financial statement fundamental work, spanning the Alternative Energy, Metals/Mining, and Industrial Sectors. We provide in-depth, contextual research and insights across all sectors and end markets within the Alternative Energy and Global Industrials sectors; we also focus on a number of factors impacting China’s macroeconomy. Our mission is to serve clients through actionable and non-consensus long/short idea generation.

Research Notes	Date
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: Pricing Pressure Intensifies; Takeaways from China Solar Conf.; Update on SEDG/Huawei/Global-Supply-Demand	May 30, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: China appears to be tipping the scale in some commodity markets… we see a number of ways to play the trade	May 27, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: We look at upcoming wafer supply and seek to answer whether history might be repeating itself	May 23, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: China’s New Anti-Pollution Drive Presents a Structural Threat to Long-Term Iron Ore Demand	May 20, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: Credit Growth Accelerated in China During April… Does It Mean the Start of New Trend?	May 13, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: Will California Rooftop Solar Mandate Prove “Kryptonite” for Solar Developers (i.e., RUN + VSLR + SPWR)?	May 9, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: China’s PMI Readings Indicate Steady Growth… but Are They Sustainable?	May 6, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: China’s PMI Readings Indicate Steady Growth… but Are They Sustainable?	May 6, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: S Solar Demand in February May Offer Further Evidence in Support of Our SEDG Thesis	May 3, 2018
TESLA, INC. (TSLA – SELL – $299.92): Structural Margin Weakness Likely to Become a Recurring Theme	May 2, 2018
SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES INC. (SEDG – SELL – $52.55): Disruptive Competition on the Horizon + Likely 1Q18 Peak in Market Share = Downgrade to SELL	May 2, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: Iron Ore Supply Is Modestly Rising… Will Demand Keep Up & What Might it Mean for Prices?	Apr 29, 2018
CLEVELAND CLIFFS, INC. (CLF – $7.49): 1Q18 Review and Company Update	Apr 26, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: China and Australia Prompt Us to Revise Our 2018 Estimates for Global Solar Installations	Apr 25, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: China’s Real Estate Activity Picked Up Steam in 1Q18… How Sustainable Could It Be?	Apr 22, 2018
Meyer Burger Tech., AG (MBTN – Buy – Fr. 1.28): Arrested Momentum Weighs on Our Ests., but After an Aggressive Sell-Off, We Still See a Buy	Apr 19, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS	Apr 18, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: We look at some of the possibilities of why Chinese government bonds have been rallying and whether this rally can continue.	Apr 16, 2018
Tesla Inc. (TSLA – $294.08): Analysis to Determine Whether There May Be Any Liquidity Needs	Apr 12, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: Rooftop Solar Applications in CA Are a Warning Sign; ABB Ups the Ante for Invertors Mfrs.	Apr 11, 2018
INITIATION OF COVERAGE: TESLA, INC. (TSLA – $289.66): Our 20 page initiation note, comprehensively analyzes the competitive landscape across the global EV market, including what new models are on the horizon and what it could mean for TSLA’s earnings potential	Apr 10, 2018
INITIATION OF COVERAGE: RIO TINTO, PLC (RIO – SELL – $50.55): Will Rio Tinto Continue to Shine, or “Bite the Dust”?	Apr 8, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: In this note we convey what our checks indicate for prospective 2Q18 solar demand and how that sentiment aligns with up/downstream spot prices	Apr 4, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: In this note we look at how some key indicators of U.S. steel demand have been trending	Apr 2, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: Who has the Most Solvency Risk under the Solar “Module Maker” Umbrella?	Mar 28, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: U.S. HRC Prices May Have Already Topped Out… Investors Should Take Note	Mar 25, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: We Expect China’s Demand Pull-In to Define 2Q18, but What Upside Is There to PV Prices?	Mar 21, 2018
GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (3800 HK – Sell – HK$1.10): 2H17 Review/Company Update	Mar 20, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE	Mar 19, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS	Mar 15, 2018
Cleveland Cliffs, Inc. (CLF – $7.29): Company Downgrade	Mar 14, 2018
Fortescue Metals Group, Ltd. (FMG – A$4.75): Initiation of Coverage	Mar 12, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: Are Steel/Iron Ore Pundits in for a “Nightmareish”2Q/2H18?	Mar 12, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: Could Problems in the US Solar Rooftop Segment be Percolating under the Radar?	Mar 8, 2018
Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN – $33.54): With Upside Catalysts in Rear-View Mirror & ’18 Rail Leasing Margins Guided Down >1,200bps	Mar 6, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: A Look at the Potential Effect to US Auto Company Margins from a Section 232 Tariff	Mar 5, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: DQ’s Guidance Appears to Support Our Poly-Si Thesis; US Installations for 2017 Are In	Mar 1, 2018
GCL-Poly Energy Holdings (3800 HK – Sell – HK$1.25): Initiation of Coverage: Is the Writing on the Wall for GCL?	Feb 28, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: Have U.S. Steel Bulls Gotten Ahead of Themselves?	Feb 26, 2018
Cleveland Cliffs, Inc. (CLF – Hold – $7.52): Company Upgrade: A “One-Two Punch” of Temporary Inorganic Demand Moves Us to the Sidelines	Feb 23, 2018
United States Steel Corp. (X – HOLD – $42.98): Commerce Sec. 232 Proposals, While Negative for US Economy, a N-Term “Gift” to U.S. Steel Mills?	Feb 23, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: After a Surge in US Module Imports, How Much Incremental Demand Could We Expect in ’18?	Feb 22, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE U.S. Commerce Dept. Recommends Stiff Section 232 Duties… What Could This Mean for Steel Stocks?	Feb 19, 2018
SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG – Buy – $36.90): Earnings Review: Competition Nowhere In Sight; SEDG to Dictate Pricing Thru ’18; Upgrade to BUY	Feb 15, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: Taiwan’s Cell Rev Points to Slowing Demand; Mono Wafer Capacity Rush May Mean Oversupply	Feb 15, 2018
MACRO UPDATE: OUR TAKE ON TRUMP’S INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN: Does the ‘98 TIFIA Act Suggest Trump’s Infrastructure Package Could Fall Far Short of Its Planned $1.5tn?	Feb 14, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: Do China’s Jan. ‘18 PPI/CPI Readings Portend Problems for Global Bulk Commodity Prices?	Feb 12, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: Will 2018 be the Year the Big Polysilicon Stocks (WCH/ GCL/DQ) See a “Swift” Correction?	Feb 8, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: China’s Economic Data from Dec. Was Mostly Positive, but What Should We Expect for 2018?	Feb 5, 2018
Jinko Solar Holding Co. Ltd. (JKS – SELL – $21.80): Initiation of Coverage: Is an Earnings “Valentine’s Day Massacre” on Tap for Jinko Solar in 2018?	Feb 2, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: Have Module Manufacturers Finally Caught a Break?	Feb 1, 2018
U.S. STEEL CORPORATION (X; SELL) INITIATION OF COVERAGE: Are Global Steel Prices About to Pull a Muhammad Ali “Rope-a-Dope” to the Downside?	Jan 30, 2018
Meyer Burger Tech., AG (MBTN – Buy – Fr. 1.93): Initiation of Coverage: New Orders Momentum May Suggest Rev/Margin Growth & Upbeat ‘18 Guidance Is On Tap	Jan 30, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: Despite Curbs China’s Steel Output is Rising… What Happens When the Curbs Are Rescinded?	Jan 29, 2018
Cleveland Cliffs, Inc. (CLF – Sell – $7.89): Earnings Review: In Early 2017 CLF’s Stock Soared Only To Fall >50% Shortly Thereafter; Is 2018 a Repeat?	Jan 26, 2018
SOLAR INDUSTRY UPDATE: PV PRICING & CUSTOM INSIGHTS: Is it Time to “Unabashedly” Short the Global Solar Sector?	Jan 25, 2018
IRON ORE/STEEL & CHINA MACRO UPDATE: Inventory Restock + Ending Output Curbs + Mean Reversion = Lower Steel Mill Profitability	Jan 22, 2018
CLEVELAND CLIFFS, INC. (CLF; SELL) INITIATION OF COVERAGE: China Steel-Mill Margins are “Tanking”; Iron Ore Prices (& CLF’s Stock) are Likely to Follow	Jan 19, 2018
SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES, INC (SEDG; SELL) INITIATION OF COVERAGE: ASP Erosion Looks Set to Intensify, Likely Outpacing Cost Cuts… Margins Beware	Jan 11, 2018
FIRST SOLAR (FSLR; BUY) INITIATION OF COVERAGE: Our Extensive Sum-of-the-Parts (“SOTP”) Analysis Points to Acute Upside Potential; BUY	Jan 11, 2018