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Ticker Symbol
Research Notes Date
RIDE: One week in things already sound different to us Sep 3, 2021
We add Vanguard Semiconductor to our framework: We’re having trouble seeing all this hold together Sep 1, 2021
RIDE: Moving to Neutral: Feels like a situation we have to view differently with some adult supervision Aug 27, 2021
MX: WIP + Finished Goods + build plan aspirations make us wonder if we cut 2H CY ’21 a little too sharply Aug 24, 2021
Innolux 3481 TT: TV panel prices appear to have started legging lower. We don’t think it will take long to spread elsewhere Aug 23, 2021
INSG: 4G smartphones started declining when 5G came along. We don’t think hotspots will be different Aug 20, 2021
KEYS: Feels like Commercial Comms is losing altitude. Might be time to keep an eye on A&D Aug 19, 2021
RMO: Recent developments are unacceptable, but the opportunity hasn’t really started yet and we suspect consolidation could (arguably should) continue Aug 18, 2021
FocalTech 3545 TT: The decline in LCD smartphone displays got a respite in 1H CY ’21. We don’t think it lasts long Aug 18, 2021
LEV: After reflecting Lion’s best quarter thus far, we still find ourselves well below the consensus. Gross Margin remains our primary concern Aug 16, 2021
Micro-Star 2377 TT: When the last VGA card cycle rolled MSI’s DOI was > 80 days. It’s pretty much there now and the air is just starting to come out of this one Aug 16, 2021
PTRA: It wasn’t all good news, but we think a lot of it was Aug 13, 2021
RIDE: Things seem likely to get worse before they get better. There is a chance they don’t get better Aug 12, 2021
SMCI: We find the reasons to get overly concerned with the near term Margin profile tough to square Aug 11, 2021
Micro-Star 2377 TT: MSI’s CQ2 ’21 Sales wound up ~ 500bps below the consensus. CQ3 ’21 is not off to a great start. Aug 11, 2021
CMBM: Shifting to Neutral: Feels like a few things to keep an eye on for the first time in a while Aug 10, 2021
WKHS: Oh good, it’s just a product redesign. Wait, what? Aug 10, 2021
MX: Bad time to not be communicating post a bad quarter Aug 9, 2021
SYNA: Did (lack of) organic growth get worse? You don’t have to look very hard to find Gross Margin trending comparable to Synaptics’ Aug 6, 2021
SYNA: A lot more PC exposure now vs. not that long ago as cautionary inputs continue to surface Aug 5, 2021
INFN: Reiterating 2021 targets and “the healthiest optical environment in years” feel like the places to focus Aug 4, 2021
ANET: Keep an eye on the Deferred, for now in a good way Aug 3, 2021
Innolux 3481 TT: AUO, the latest to add capacity, doesn’t seem all that worried about industry supply. We aren’t sure why Aug 3, 2021
Innolux 3481 TT: LG Display’s shipments grew a lot in CQ2 ’21. So did Inventory and Capacity. They don’t sound like they are exiting LCD anytime soon Jul 29, 2021
MPWR: Amidst Semiconductor results we don’t think are telling us a whole lot, we thought this one would be better Jul 28, 2021
INTC: The naming stuff is mostly silly. The rest isn’t Jul 28, 2021
RIDE / WKHS: The good news? Some potential access to funding. The bad news? Some potential access to funding. Jul 27, 2021
INTC: Does it make sense to pick a fight with a guy who seems really focused on “say / do” ratios and execution? Jul 26, 2021
NTGR: US Channel Inventory hit an all-time last quarter. Europe did too Jul 22, 2021
EVGO: Developments at three of the four largest DCFC networks bear (careful) monitoring Jul 22, 2021
TXN: We suspect a largely seasonal picture will emerge but we aren’t sure that’s going to tell us a whole lot Jul 20, 2021
SYNA: Improvements we’re not sure have been all that impressive in context. Sustainability remains a concern Jul 20, 2021
Novatek 3034 TT: / FocalTech 3545 TT: We find a few things within TSMC’s CQ2 results confusing, arguably concerning Jul 16, 2021
EVGO: NeutralTwo weeks into life as a public company EVgo makes an acquisition. It confuses us a little Jul 16, 2021
FocalTech 3545 TT: Underwhelming conclusion to a weak CQ2 ’21 for China Smartphones Jul 14, 2021
Innolux 3481 TT: Another quarter of really favorable pricing is in the books. We don’t think there’s many more left Jul 13, 2021
Micro-Star 2377 TT: Well below seasonal June pushes CQ2 ’21 Sales > 500bps below consensus Jul 9, 2021
LEV: Downgrading to Sell: We’re now a good bit below the consensus and our estimates still make us a little uneasy Jul 9, 2021
Micro-Star 2377 TT: A key peer saw June Sales slow sharply. Graphics card supply appears to have kept coming since. Jul 8, 2021
Novatek 3034 TT: Novatek’s June Sales nearly doubled Y/Y. We think Global Large Panel units likely slowed to LSD growth. Jul 7, 2021
We add EVgo: In some ways pretty straightforward, in other ways not so straightforward Jul 6, 2021
LEV: While this is probably a first cut, it doesn’t feel great for School Bus Electrification Jun 25, 2021
PTRA: We don’t want to get overly focused on individual Transit mandates, but this one causes us to raise our estimates a bit Jun 24, 2021
INFN: Cisco’s Optical Chief spoke publicly this week. He didn’t really say a whole lot Jun 23, 2021
Micro-Star 2377: VGA card developments continue to look awfully familiar. A few notable differences may loom. Jun 22, 2021
We add Focaltech to our framework: We don’t think the next few years for TDDI will look nearly as good as the last few did Jun 22, 2021
PTRA: In a shocking turn of events, an EV SPAC comfortably exceeds our CQ1 ’21 estimates Jun 21, 2021
WKHS: Probability of successfully challenging this contract feels low while our estimates increasingly feel high Jun 18, 2021
Novatek 3034 TT: CQ2 21 is on track to be one of the best quarters in many years for Small DDICs. It’s looking less good for China Smartphones. Jun 17, 2021
RIDE: It’s been about 48 hours since the Founder left (was ousted). We aren’t feeling any less uneasy. Jun 16, 2021
RIDE: The developments haven’t looked good to us for some time now. This latest one doesn’t either. Jun 15, 2021
MX: It feels tougher to argue, one way or another, a deal isn’t getting done. Jun 14, 2021
Innolux’ May Sales undershot our model a bit — and that’s the good news. Jun 10, 2021
RMO: Checking in with Romeo: Encouraging progress Jun 10, 2021
Micro-Star 2377 TT: Micro-Star’s CQ2 Sales trending okay. Reception to that latest batch of graphics cards, less okay. Jun 10, 2021
RIDE: If viable and sustainable mechanisms to avoid all of this existed, wouldn’t they have surfaced by now? Jun 9, 2021
FSR: Fisker continues push for mass market EV rebates as Ford data suggests preferences (for now) skew premium Jun 8, 2021
Innolux 3481 TT: We were a little confused by the “supply discipline” narrative before. We’re really confused now. Jun 7, 2021
SMCI: Following good growth separation in CQ1 ’21, Super Micro putting capacity in place for repeat performances Jun 4, 2021
CIEN: A few things to monitor now that the narrative shift has arrived a bit earlier than we thought Jun 4, 2021
CIEN: Things likely remain unexciting near term, but we’d guess a narrative shift comes sooner vs. later Jun 2, 2021
We add Micro-Star to our Idea Framework: A set of “new normal” expectations we don’t view as all that new or normal Jun 2, 2021
MCHP: Really, really favorable demand commentary we are struggling a bit to process May 28, 2021
DY: As expected / feared, the near term is not great. Seems like a uniquely bad time to be overly concerned. May 26, 2021
RIDE: Problematic timing for what is, again, not a good look. May 25, 2021
DY: The last time Dycom repurchased $100M of stock in a quarter, it worked out well. They just did it again. May 24, 2021
RIDE: If feels extreme yet simultaneously legitimate to ask: If Lordstown leaves the Endurance pricing unchanged, why will they sell any of them? May 21, 2021
INFN: The path to record earnings, this time in a less crowded competitive environment, doesn’t feel all that daunting May 20, 2021
MX: Headlines take an interesting turn at an interesting time May 19, 2021
LEV: Some encouraging developments, some less encouraging May 19, 2021
FSR: The unexciting part isn’t going to last a whole lot longer May 18, 2021
Acer: PC demand has been really, really good. Acer’s share of that demand appears a lot less good. May 17, 2021
RMO: Securing supply far more relevant than reported results. We’d wager those discussions are a bit smoother now May 14, 2021
Innolux 3481 TT: Really strong results take a backseat to a really large increase in LCD Industry Capex May 13, 2021
MX: CQ1 ’21 EPS above our model as Power offset Display. We don’t expect Display to need offsetting much longer May 10, 2021
UI: CQ1 was close to our model, although again looks consumer heavy. We continue to see Ubiquiti on the wrong end of some things. May 10, 2021
CMBM: Results were again very good. We find carefully chosen words on new customer opportunities more intriguing. May 7, 2021
INSG: With the pandemic not yet extinguished, revenue is right back where it was. Operating losses (removing a sizeable spike in SBC) are quite a bit worse. May 7, 2021
INFN: Can margins (again) approach the largest peer’s? We’ll see. Should they be below a sub-scale peer? Nope. May 6, 2021
ANET: As 400G gets closer Arista’s comfort and visibility increase, while checks suggest (at least) one whitebox project has gone sideways May 5, 2021
SMCI: Best start to a year ever leaves us unclear as to why Super Micro should trade at a discount to Server ODMs May 5, 2021
SMCI: We consider this a pretty important quarter May 4, 2021
We add Novatek to our Idea Framework: Capitalizing an unexpected set of ideal conditions doesn’t feel like a great idea May 4, 2021
3481 TT: Are we sure about supply discipline? Apr 30, 2021
TXN: We remain focused on TI’s distribution dynamics and wonder if they haven’t worsened this crisis a bit Apr 29, 2021
AMD: Are we sure the answers to all the big questions land favorably for AMD? Apr 28, 2021
INTC: The big questions remain, but either they fix or they don’t, sitting still wasn’t an option Apr 23, 2021
ACTC: Things still moving a little slowly on the Transit side, although two looks from the White House might help Apr 23, 2021
INTC: We like the potential for roadmap repair, the PC market concerns us Apr 22, 2021
RIDE: The Endurance made it to mile 40 of a 280 mile race. We have a few questions. Apr 22, 2021
NTGR: From 50 week lead times to seasonally abnormal promotional activities in less than 90 days Apr 22, 2021
NTGR: Doesn’t appear as though things are going to get any less crowded from here Apr 21, 2021
MX: MagnaChip’s Proxy Filing: We find ourselves most intrigued, and a little confused, by “Parties F and G” Apr 20, 2021
We add Innolux to our Idea Framework: Feels like time to take the under(s) Apr 16, 2021
RIDE: REE’s Analyst Day: Four motors? Yes. In-wheel? No. Apr 13, 2021
Acer: Deceleration will be dismissed for now, we are less sure it remains dismissed later Apr 12, 2021
INSG: Verizon recalling one competitor’s hotspot appears most beneficial to another competitor’s hotspot Apr 9, 2021
HIMX: Things remain really good for now. Things staying this good continues to feel like a tall order. Apr 8, 2021
RMO: An important step taken toward resolving the chicken and egg issue. We think there’s more to come. Apr 7, 2021
INSG: Inseego sheds another CFO “effective immediately” Apr 7, 2021
HIMX/ ACER: Triple digit NB growth in the best of places now but Y/Y contraction doesn’t appear too far off Apr 6, 2021
MX: A more assertive follow-up filing Apr 6, 2021
UI: Prior to what is, again, not a good look, an important share metric was already heading the wrong way Apr 5, 2021
RMO: A chicken and egg problem we think resolves itself sooner rather than later Mar 31, 2021
MX: Moving to Neutral from Buy: Smart deal, fair price Mar 29, 2021
MPWR: An update on litigation we find noteworthy Mar 29, 2021
SMCI: The good news? There’s plenty of share to gain. The bad news? It’s still moving in the wrong direction Mar 25, 2021
INTC: A broad ambition we think is probably pretty narrowly focused at the outset Mar 24, 2021
ACTC: We add Proterra to our Idea Framework: Electrifying buses now, bigger opportunities elsewhere later Mar 22, 2021
RIDE: Estimates down, confusion up Mar 18, 2021
RIDE: Near term focus to jobs, intermediate term to product / production quality, longer term to crowding Mar 17, 2021
NGA/LEV: Good, although expected, battery progress in Canada Mar 16, 2021
Acer: Lapping the last of the easy compares amidst continued component constraints and Chromebook crowding Mar 16, 2021
WKHS/RIDE: USPS clarifies and repeats they can electrify as much of the fleet as is economically feasible, with Oshkosh Mar 12, 2021
NGA/LEV: Some delivery snags at the end of 2020 Mar 12, 2021
COHR: We are removing our “Neutral” rating and Terminating Coverage within our Idea Generation Framework Mar 10, 2021
CMBM: We continue to be encouraged by the broad strokes, with one or two things to monitor Mar 10, 2021
We add Himax to our Framework: Some commendable progress recently, but a handful of “bests ever” could make for a high bar Mar 9, 2021
DY: Backlog and buybacks now, well situated for (at least) a 100 up / 100 down world later Mar 9, 2021
SMCI: Not a ton of detail, but the CEO ties himself quite directly to some lofty growth ambitio Mar 5, 2021
INSG: Turns out we missed at least one more willing seller Mar 4, 2021
WKHS: Oshkosh strengthens over view that the NGDV ship has sailed Mar 4, 2021
CIEN: We’d be surprised to see much near term strength or much shift in intermediate term narrative Mar 3, 2021
DY: Expectations have drifted appropriately lower now, we expect them drift appropriately higher later Mar 2, 2021
INSG: We think life is about to get a lot tougher in (all) hotspots while < 20% of Americans want 5G home (and the two largest appear all set for CPEs) Mar 2, 2021
RMO: What looks increasing like a Force Majeure year for cells has more positives than negatives in our view Mar 1, 2021
INFN: Whether it’s 2021 or 2022 doesn’t seem all that important a distinction to us Mar 1, 2021
FSR: The Ocean is coming along well, but we find more relevance in progress toward the larger ambition(s) Feb 26, 2021
NTGR: A large customer’s demand and inventory comments worth noting amidst continued discounting Feb 26, 2021
INSG: Selling close to half of a business that not that long ago accounted for > 100% of NG EBITDA Feb 25, 2021
FSR: Life after the FM29 platform coming into focus could (should) put upward pressure on our model Feb 24, 2021
MCHP: Checking in with Microchip: Creatively navigating an environment we find trickier than advertised Feb 24, 2021
WKHS: Looks like VT Hackney was on to something Feb 24, 2021
INTC: Checking in with Lenovo: Supply remains the problem for now, although not uniformly so Feb 23, 2021
KEYS: Sustaining the pace and slope of spending for 4G, 5G and Defense continues to feel challenging to us Feb 23, 2021
ANET: We find Cloudification more compelling than Cloud, and see some important momentum building here Feb 19, 2021
CMBM: Pretty much everyone is seeing supply constraints, not everyone has a primary competitor who seems not to like their customers very much Feb 19, 2021
MX: We think OLED supply should look better by Analyst Day and see scope for a much larger Power business Feb 18, 2021
INSG: 4G hotspot demand remained skewed to low cost versions. We don’t think 5G will be much different Feb 18, 2021
MX: Our estimates continue to feel low relative to an opportunity set that looks high and rising Feb 17, 2021
RMO: Unexpected with some moving pieces, but we think ultimately favorably for Romeo Feb 16, 2021
SMCI: We’d like a more forceful response to what we view as more or less the same dynamics Feb 12, 2021
INSG: Bar starting to look awfully high Feb 12, 2021
NGA/LEV: School bus market remained challenged but optimism around recovery and electrification gathering steam Feb 11, 2021
RIDE: “Prototype”, “Police report” and “engulfed in flame” are generally not words you want to see in close proximity to each other Feb 11, 2021
FSR: We sense a higher level of comfort / confidence ahead of the Ocean spec lock down Feb 10, 2021
MCHP: We find the other kinds of six sigma events more conducive to outsized returns Feb 9, 2021
WKHS: Biden’s Section 205: Anyone checked with UAW? Feb 8, 2021
INSG: A Hotspot peer demand drop off in CQ4 ’20, it looks quite a bit worse in CQ1 ‘21 Feb 5, 2021
NTGR: Demand environment remained unsustainably good. Results remained confusing, arguably concerning Feb 4, 2021
SMCI: Returning to growth and upping the buyback now, Analyst Day and compelling CPU cycles later Feb 3, 2021
MCHP: Move to Neutral: Things can, likely will, stay this good for a while, but significant improvement from here feels challenging Feb 3, 2021
SMCI: We’re not nuts about near term estimates. Beyond that, we (should) see a lot to like Feb 2, 2021
We add Lion Electric to our Idea Framework: A first mover in electric school buses with credible, but ambitious, commercial vehicle aspirations Feb 1, 2021
RMO: Comfort in getting airborne smoothly now, confidence in escape velocity later Jan 29, 2021
TXN: 2020 was not 2008. Overseas Distributors and ODM raw materials bear monitoring Jan 27, 2021
INTC: What should Intel do? We’re not sure, but there are a lot of pieces to work with and we’re guessing he has some ideas Jan 25, 2021
INSG: One 5G hotspot spiked, a FWA development which doesn’t look great Jan 15, 2021
INTC: Opportune time for a compelling choice Jan 14, 2021
INFN: ICE6 performance continues to impress and improve Jan 13, 2021
WKHS: With GM’s BrightDrop another former customer goes in a different direction Jan 13, 2021
MX: Things appear to have tracked well in CQ4 20 with a decent slate of positives ahead Jan 12, 2021
Acer: Following the best growth for PCs in a decade, focus shifts from reacting to sustaining Jan 12, 2021
CIEN / INFN: A broadly positive update from Adva Jan 11, 2021
KEYS: With not much room left on smartphones, China’s 5G base station intentions underwhelm Jan 7, 2021
WKHS: We have a few questions about that purchase order Jan 6, 2021
CIEN: Comfortable, we’re just not sure THAT comfortable Jan 5, 2021
FSR: We add Fisker to our Idea Framework: Looking for better Karma Jan 4, 2021
CIEN: Backlog a bit worse than advertised Dec 21, 2020
Scope for TDDI competitive dynamics to take a problematic turn as the market moves closer to saturation Dec 20, 2020
RMO/RMG: We add Romeo Power to our Framework: Bringing the merchant vendor model to markets where batteries matter most Dec 18, 2020
ANET: As the core business firms it’s turned out to be a pretty good time to own advanced NDR capabilities Dec 16, 2020
RIDE: Camping World? What happened to Ryder? Dec 16, 2020
INSG: Again, not a new customer or use case, and this one has already cut price by 25% Dec 15, 2020
CMBM: We think elevated (elevating) lead times for key SKUs now owes in part to success with Elevate then Dec 15, 2020
INSG: A not exactly new customer announced right around the time an interesting price cut surfaced Dec 14, 2020
CIEN: Not great, but portions feel pretty extreme Dec 10, 2020
MX/MCHP/MPWR/TXN: A key peer offers an update with some positives, but also a few warning flares Dec 10, 2020
CIEN: We aren’t particularly worried about death by Whitebox, but still feels like a problematic setup in either direction both near and intermediate term Dec 9, 2020
CMBM: 60GHz Terragraph continues to look compelling, but also starting to crowd a bit Dec 9, 2020
Acer: Another largely seasonal month, but key segments are crowding and much tougher compares loom Dec 8, 2020
INSG: Not a new customer, not a new use case and (we strongly suspect) not good for Gross Margin Dec 4, 2020
SMCI: It’s not a normal year and caveats apply but things seem to be moving the wrong way exiting vs. entering Dec 4, 2020
MCHP: Target model bumped marginally, we’d like to see more progress supporting the Total System narrative Dec 3, 2020
WKHS: Lack of urgency to a process now over half a decade old could (arguably should) signal something larger Dec 2, 2020
MPWR: Important customer(s) seeing 5G infrastructure soften, important competitor(s) making progress Dec 2, 2020
KEYS: Relevant trade restrictions keep coming, and this might not change much with the new administration Dec 1, 2020
DY: Moving back to Buy: Not great, but that might have been the worst of it Nov 25, 2020
We add Lordstown Motors to our Idea Framework: A shift to technology they don’t own and which the industry has passed on for a century might bring some challenges Nov 20, 2020
KEYS: The last few years have included tailwinds we think are unlikely to be included in the next few Nov 19, 2020
KEYS: Recent peer inputs haven’t been particularly solid and the narrative continues to feel a little long in the tooth Nov 18, 2020
MPWR: Mediatek acquiring (more) Analog power assets as aspirations extend beyond their own platforms, with a focus on Cloud Servers Nov 17, 2020
INSG: The primary competitor in at least one key account again grew materially faster with (arguably because of) lower Gross Margins Nov 17, 2020
WKHS: A Post Office in pretty tough shape causes us to continue questioning prospects for a NGDV contract Nov 16, 2020
CMBM: A PTP product cycle offering more last mile opportunities set to join the PtMP cycles in early 2021 Nov 13, 2020
WKHS: After a noteworthy effort couldn’t make the EV math work abroad, Ford set to try it alone domestically Nov 13, 2020
COHR: Not good, and at this point both confusing and concerning Nov 11, 2020
WKHS: Another production target missed, a concerning production cost comparison and a PPP decision we don’t think is a particularly good look Nov 11, 2020
MPWR: The third sizeable contribution from a direct customer in about a year, this one with much more favorable payment terms Nov 10, 2020
Acer: Near term trends still mostly good, beyond near term still feels mostly concerning Nov 10, 2020
CMBM: 2020 was an important year, but the product cycles and stimulus tailwinds really start to matter in 2021 Nov 6, 2020
INFN: Handling themselves well now, significant product cycle opportunity against arguably the best industry landscape ever later Nov 6, 2020
INSG: Against a backdrop of unsustainably good demand aided by channel fill, growth lagged peers and earnings quality wasn’t very good Nov 6, 2020
INSG: Enhancements to the iPhone don’t feel like a great development and we’re not seeing much to assuage our FWA concerns Nov 5, 2020
MCHP: Several things look too low to us near term, beyond that we think the opportunity still lies in doing nothing Nov 5, 2020
SMCI: A far more definitive stance on growth ambitions and drivers is a significant positive Nov 4, 2020
ANET: Share debate might shift from how much might be at risk to how much might be gained Nov 3, 2020
SMCI: Super Micro to report CQ3 ’20: There are clearly some headwinds right now, but equally clearly there are some opportunities Nov 3, 2020
INSG: A customer add, but one we don’t expect to drive much contribution (at least) near to intermediate term Nov 2, 2020
MPWR: It turns out CQ3 ’20 was pretty much everyone’s best quarter in quite a while, but there are a few more asterisks here Oct 30, 2020
MX: Feels more like an IPO than a company sneaking up on its 10th year as a public company Oct 30, 2020
KEYS: A key competitor saw orders slow sharply, sees some snags with mmWave Oct 29, 2020
ANET: Another surprisingly strong Enterprise Switching input, a key Hyperscale vendor continues expanding capacity Oct 28, 2020
We add Workhorse to our Idea Framework: From Title Starts Online to EV last mile disruptor (..?) Oct 26, 2020
INTC: Semi IP and manufacturing have never been this geopolitically relevant, Intel has never been this disliked Oct 23, 2020
INSG: One peer doesn’t seem all that convinced of sustainability of Hotspot demand Oct 22, 2020
NTGR: Further share loss ahead of looming market crowding and Service Provider trajectory implications feel problematic Oct 22, 2020
TXN: Above consensus but not all that different from peers doesn’t do much to ease our concerns Oct 21, 2020
TXN: Certainly better be good now, we continue to be less enthusiastic later Oct 20, 2020
CMBM: With one Hyperscale led wireless broadband initiative now in motion, a second might be surfacing Oct 16, 2020
SYNA: Things continue to look challenging in Mobile Oct 14, 2020
CMBM: Cambium will comfortably exceed guidance for the third time this year, next year should be better Oct 14, 2020
We add Ciena to our Framework: Shifting focus to a recovery, but we have some questions, and we aren’t nuts about the estimates Oct 14, 2020
ACER: Best quarter of growth in a decade, although it started out stronger than it finished Oct 13, 2020
ANET: Not the cleanest read, but it probably doesn’t hurt Oct 9, 2020
SMCI: A US project award could / should provide benefits far in excess of the deal size Oct 8, 2020
MX: First redemption done eliminates > 70% of Interest Expense a bit ahead of our prior assumption Oct 7, 2020
MX: Our MagnaChip estimates already feel too low Oct 6, 2020
DY: Most developments continue to look encouraging, one or two we think it makes sense to monitor Oct 6, 2020
Another export restriction looks official, seemingly another instance of pull forward Oct 5, 2020
INSG: Two fixed wireless offerings domestically and developments overseas don’t look all that encouraging Oct 5, 2020
STMicro’s best growth in > 15 years likely good now, but concerning later, for MCU peers Oct 1, 2020
We add Acer to our Idea Framework: We think we understand how they got here, staying here could prove trickier Oct 1, 2020
ANET: Adding items to the menu ahead of what should be a more favorable demand environment Sep 30, 2020
INITIATION: MX: Transformation yields a very favorably exposed product company with about half its market cap in cash Sep 25, 2020
INSG: Inseego lost share at their largest customer, and things have gotten more crowded since Sep 23, 2020
INITIATION: We re-add Netgear to our Framework: Sustaining a COVID bump as things crowd feels challenging Sep 22, 2020
CMBM/UI: Cambium’s 60GHz is potentially transformative, and looks quite a bit more compelling than what we’ve seen from the primary competitor Sep 18, 2020
INSG: Another hotspot competitor surfaces at Verizon alongside certified pre-owned Sep 17, 2020
MPWR: A confusing update causes our concerns to spread to production alongside consumption Sep 15, 2020
COHR: Moving to Neutral: Concerns unchanged, but consensus estimates look too low near term Sep 14, 2020
SMCI: Market share took another step in the right direction, our CQ3 ’20 confusion remains unchanged Sep 11, 2020
UI: We think continued splintering of what had been a loyal user base has important and problematic implications Sep 11, 2020
August wasn’t great for Component Distribution, and we haven’t lost Huawei / HiSilicon yet Sep 11, 2020
INSG: With Verizon’s 5G Home reboot imminent, we can find only one CPE that looks like it fits the bill Sep 10, 2020
KEYS: Another potential entity list addition feels like another problem Sep 9, 2020
DY: Moving to Neutral: There remains a lot to like, but consensus estimates cause us some concern Sep 8, 2020
INSG: With school already online, hotspots seem pretty widely available amidst continued indications of lower end preference Sep 4, 2020
SMCI: 1H CY ’20 performance stacks up well, CQ3 ’20 guide increasingly looks like a really low bar Aug 28, 2020
KEYS: More entity list additions, one in particular jumps out Aug 28, 2020
DY: Raising FV Target / Certainly more good than bad, but customer dynamics and backlog development a little confusing Aug 27, 2020
SMCI: Negative headline, positive developments Aug 26, 2020
MPWR: First unit decline in multiple years seems noteworthy, and comes at sort of a confusing time Aug 25, 2020
UI: A bit below our estimates during a quarter in which we don’t think customers were treated particularly well Aug 24, 2020
KEYS: With more customer risk and lower order coverage, feels like the ice is getting thin Aug 21, 2020
KEYS: Should be fine now, we see some challenges later Aug 20, 2020
KEYS: Probably makes sense to keep an eye on Cisco Aug 19, 2020
CMBM: From here there are more products into more use cases against a backdrop of more funding for more customers Aug 18, 2020
COHR: OLED capacity air pocket amid 5G phone de-spec’ing Aug 17, 2020
ANET: In a year of decent Cloud spending Arista is not going to grow, but neither is anyone else Aug 14, 2020
SMCI: The opportunity set remains compelling, more concrete communication remains required Aug 13, 2020
SMCI: Near term is understandable, arguably encouraging, but it’s time for some intermediate term guide posts Aug 12, 2020
AAOI: Several things moving in the right direction could make laser capacity an issue Aug 10, 2020
AAOI: Adding fronthaul to the mix yields more positives than negatives for now Aug 7, 2020
INFN: On the verge of redefining themselves as technology and politics redefines their market Aug 6, 2020
INSG: A period of unsustainable demand yields no guidance and a CFO departure Aug 6, 2020
MCHP: Some caution won’t be welcomed today, but it helps one way or another through the 2H Aug 5, 2020
COHR: Near term underwhelming, continue to think OLED is proceeding toward concerning Aug 5, 2020
MCHP: Letters historically have been share price friendly Aug 4, 2020
INSG: Probably makes sense to keep an eye on South Africa Jul 31, 2020
KEYS: A non-US peer continues to do very well in APAC, a US peer hits some snags Jul 31, 2020
ANET: A peer and a customer suggest upward pressure to estimates, while checks suggest some whitebox delays Jul 30, 2020
MPWR: Dynamics favorable now, we think less so later Jul 29, 2020
MPWR: Concerns affecting a well-positioned competitor seem worthy of attention Jul 28, 2020
INTC: The DCG downturn should be brief, and we think it’s unlikely this node transition is as tough as the last Jul 24, 2020
INFN: Adva results look encouraging Jul 24, 2020
INTC: Portfolio arguably never more relevant, multiple arguably never more depressed Jul 23, 2020
TXN: Underperforming peers now, Growth and Margin risks later Jul 22, 2020
INSG: The week since LA announced delayed reopening appears to have been better for the low cost hotspot Jul 21, 2020
TXN: Near term should be / better be fine, we think some challenges loom intermediate to longer term Jul 21, 2020
TSM: Potential for the “anything is ok” narrative to disappoint Jul 17, 2020
DY: With some pretty positive tailwinds already in place, seems like Google might be reactivating Jul 16, 2020
5G smartphone penetration already exceeds 60% in China Jul 15, 2020
UI: Pushing two products to EOL during a global pandemic doesn’t appear to be going over particularly well Jul 14, 2020
MCHP/MPWR/TXN: CQ2 ’20 Component distribution was well below seasonal, with first input into CQ3 ’20 not great Jul 13, 2020
INSG: In the span of about 60 days, Hotspot availability issues have eased quite a bit Jul 13, 2020
INTC: Worst quarter in a long time for PCs followed by best quarter in a long time for PCs Jul 10, 2020
CMBM: Guidance bumped, and the product cycles haven’t even started yet Jul 9, 2020
SYNA: We suspect there is a reason Broadcom is looking to exit these markets for a second time Jul 8, 2020
Short Idea: We add Coherent to our Framework: Scope for OLED to shift from encouraging to concerning Jun 30, 2020
Cambium’s product announcements yield some questions about Ubiquiti’s roadmap, and further confusion about Ubiquiti’s Bill of Materials Jun 25, 2020
CMBM: We add Cambium to our Idea Framework: Scope for continued share gains against a competitor with an Enterprise Value > 50x larger Jun 22, 2020
Infinera’s 800G looks pretty compelling vs. direct competition, although there appears to be plenty of opportunity elsewhere Jun 19, 2020
SYNA: A recent fundraising could develop into a sizeable problem Jun 17, 2020
Synaptics’ CMD: Some OLED commentary we have trouble squaring, and some targets which feel like a stretch Jun 15, 2020
INTC: Feels like it ended prematurely, but Mr. Keller’s Intel tenure was about equal to his average AMD tenures Jun 12, 2020
SMCI: Market share moves in the right direction for the first time since “the article” Jun 12, 2020
MCHP/MPWR/TXN: Component distribution slowed pretty hard last month Jun 11, 2020
INTC: Compute supply chain tracking comfortably ahead, MB / Server feels better than NB into CQ3 ‘20 Jun 10, 2020
We Add Texas Instruments to our framework: Less than three months later, more or less back where we just were Jun 9, 2020
INTC: Server chassis demand is picking up a lot, and visibility is extending Jun 5, 2020
Infinera pretty soundly outpaced industry peers, and the competitive backdrop has arguably gotten more favorable Jun 5, 2020
MCHP: A little better now, a lot of potential later Jun 3, 2020
INTC: Desktop feels like a lever for upside near term, and for narrowing a substantial multiple discount longer term Jun 3, 2020
INSG: Fixed Wireless CPE might be the most crowded market on the planet, and margins appear to show it Jun 1, 2020
Super Micro appears to have comfortably outpaced the peer group for a second straight quarter May 29, 2020
INTC/AMD/TSM: Some demand optimism, but this still looks like a lot of Compute Inventory May 28, 2020
HPE adding execution missteps to a narrow portfolio should yield opportunity May 22, 2020
TSM: Feels like an odd time for Samsung to add capacity without customer commitments May 21, 2020
INSG: A surprising input makes us more worried about competitive dynamics May 21, 2020
INTC: A lot of optimism from the largest PC vendor, but also a lot of inventory May 20, 2020
SYNA: Huawei might be a problem, but we don’t think the only problem May 20, 2020
DY: FQ1 21 first look: Things are better than we thought now, and several key customer compares get a lot easier later May 19, 2020
SMCI: Scope for some upward pressure on revenue estimates, We think JV should be fixed or exited May 19, 2020
ANET: After an unplanned step backward, developments downstream seem to be moving forward May 18, 2020
INSG: A little curious to find a competing product go from out of stock to on sale in the span of about two weeks May 18, 2020
MPWR: A big distributor again has big inventory May 15, 2020
Cisco’s 1H CY ’20 Switching Sales look down close to 15% Y/Y, but perhaps a glimpse of stability May 14, 2020
MPWR: China again accounted for over 100% of Sales growth, and a 10% Direct Customer appeared / reappeared May 14, 2020
The largest distributor in APAC seeing this type of growth now has generally not meant good things for TSMC later May 12, 2020
Infinera to report CQ1 20: There are and will be complications, but the broad strokes here seem somewhat straightforward May 12, 2020
TSM: April Sales below seasonal, scope for heightened US / China risks mounts May 11, 2020
INSG: Financings we find awfully confusing appear to have arrived just in time May 11, 2020
SYNA: Concerning Revenue trending May 8, 2020
SMCI: More good than bad near term, with renewed focus on growth a notable positive May 8, 2020
INSG: Not sure we agree with any of the key assertions, and unclear on a Balance Sheet omission May 7, 2020
INTC: A key component vendor’s visibility extending suggests scope for upward pressure to our DCG estimates May 7, 2020
SMCI: Near term could be choppy, but scope to get back on track with some product cycle help May 7, 2020
ANET: We think a marginal upward revision to Cloud segment is more positive than it looks May 6, 2020
INFN: Becoming the largest customer to a key component vendor for the first time suggests progress continues despite near term headwinds May 5, 2020
DY: Results and guidance from a key industry peer look reassuring, perhaps even encouraging May 4, 2020
INTC: Comet Lake Desktop CPUs are official, scope for recovery off a CQ1 ’20 May 1, 2020
KEYS: Revised export restrictions probably helpful short term, but we suspect they get unhelpful in a hurry after that May 1, 2020
We add Inseego to our Framework: We aren’t sure this turnaround effort ends up much differently than all the ones that preceded it Apr 30, 2020
AMD CQ1 20: Seems like an awful lot of the upside isn’t accruing to AMD, and that’s before competitors regain at least some of their stride Apr 29, 2020
MPS CQ1 20 results: Growth undershooting some relevant yardsticks now, things could get a bit more challenging later Apr 29, 2020
With pretty clear acceleration across the 5G ecosystems, a key T&M vendor sees things flattening out Apr 28, 2020
INTC: We think the biggest headline negative is a really important structural positive Apr 24, 2020
Intel to report CQ1 ’20: Seems like a lot of concerns for a company with some decent tailwinds trading at a substantial discoun Apr 23, 2020
Things at TI are not good right now, but the bottom of this might not be too far off Apr 22, 2020
TSM: Feels like more risk than reward Apr 17, 2020
TSM: Not sure either primary concern was addressed Apr 16, 2020
TSM to report CQ1 ’20 results: Not sure COVID is the biggest risk Apr 15, 2020
A weak CQ1 ’20 for PC shipments could mark the interim growth trough Apr 14, 2020
INTC: ODM production pops back: Doesn’t tell us much, but a pretty bleak scenario is already resident in our estimates Apr 13, 2020
MCHP: Good start to a bad crisis Apr 9, 2020
Novatek: Removing from Our Framework: Thesis stalled on upstream capacity shifts we don’t think it makes sense to ignore Apr 8, 2020
We add Arista to our Framework: A key metric got off track, but looks to be back on track, amidst a lot of cash and a lot of “Neutrals” Apr 6, 2020
Dycom taking some proactive measures we aren’t sure will be all that necessary as broadband favorable initiatives continue Apr 2, 2020
We add Microchip to our Framework: The path to post crisis revaluation might be as easy as “Do the opposite” Mar 31, 2020
We Add Infinera to our Idea Framework: Best shot looms to get back in gear after a pretty long winter Mar 27, 2020
SMCI Reducing CY ’20 on production / logistics, leaving CY ’21 alone; A lot of cash, and an incented senior management Mar 25, 2020
We add Intel to our Framework: Some cushion built in ahead of a crisis we suspect may not be as bad as the one faced a decade ago Mar 24, 2020
Removing Realtek from Our Idea Generation Framework: Target attained Mar 20, 2020
We add Dycom to Our Framework: Access to bandwidth loos like a mounting priority, Navigating next year’s convert maturity looks feasible Mar 19, 2020
Removing Ciena from our Idea Generation Framework: Thesis stalled Mar 19, 2020
CDW Removing from our Idea Generation Framework: Target attained Mar 17, 2020
Removing TXN from Our Idea Generation Framework: Target attained faster than expected creates yield dynamics we don’t think it makes sense to ignore Mar 13, 2020
Novatek had a very good February, while underlying consumption doesn’t look particularly good Mar 10, 2020
Ciena’s near term feels riskier, next several years look harder than the last several Mar 6, 2020
Ciena FQ1 ’20 a bit better but Services driven; Below consensus guide on corona follows in-line guide from a peer also dealing with corona Mar 5, 2020
One metric makes us wonder if KEY’s FY ’20 Sales estimate is too high; A lot of talk about Software, but charging differently for Services looks like a bigger driver Mar 4, 2020
MPS’ 10K: Customer trending inverted, Pricing benefit faded, New Auditors raised a flag Mar 3, 2020
Some encouraging AAOI developments, some less encouraging developments Feb 28, 2020
Keysight, like peers, saw no real problems exiting 2019, but concurrent infrastructure + device cycles now suggest less favorable conditions later Feb 25, 2020
Keysight to report FQ1 ’20 results: Pull forward in one adjacent market flattens out CY ’20, while a peer sees the late cycle portion of early cycle spike up exiting CY ’19 Feb 24, 2020
Novatek : Tough to see why 2H CY ’20 will be above seasonal, while growth in CY ’21 looks challenging Feb 21, 2020
Acacia’s Sales growth (ex-ZTE) again surpasses Ciena’s; Infinera acceleration offsets Cisco softness Feb 20, 2020
Apple’s CQ1 ’20 cut follows Huawei’s worst CQ4 on record; Samsung’s Touch Controller shows up attached to a non-Samsung display Feb 19, 2020
We add Monolithic Power to our Idea Framework: Expectations high, sailing might get a little less smooth Feb 18, 2020
Macro uncertainty isn’t great, but share loss seems like the bigger problem Feb 13, 2020
PC Touchpad share loss looks set to continue; One of several recent developments we have trouble squaring Feb 12, 2020
We revise our estimates higher, but a lot of good things have happened against arguably the strongest backdrop in decades Feb 11, 2020
Uninspiring start to the year in Taiwan passives Feb 11, 2020
January TSM Sales were just a bit below seasonal trending, we suspect end consumption did not / is not faring as well Feb 10, 2020
UBNT: One quarter removed from tariff fears, Sales slow sharply; Net Debt ticks past $500M Feb 7, 2020
SMCI: Returning to growth with a lot of headwinds gone or dissipating, and an all-time high net cash balance Feb 7, 2020
Underwhelming CQ4 ’19 CPU trending implies GPU trending that looks an awful lot like the “crypto-bubble” Feb 7, 2020
CDW: Solid quarter, but a lot more PC exposure now vs. the last major O/S EOL Feb 6, 2020
TXN: No change to capital management commentary, no incremental clarity on struggles in Embedded Feb 5, 2020
NTGR: Removing from Our Idea Generation Framework Feb 5, 2020
The largest MLCC vendor sees Orders jump sharply, while the largest High-End PCB vendor cuts guidance sharply Feb 4, 2020
Scope for Verizon headwinds in FY ’20 Jan 31, 2020
A key customer’s Capex specifics don’t look all that encouraging Jan 30, 2020
T&M peer sees Orders bounce back, although Sales less so, as share appears to be shifting in China Jan 30, 2020
Intel had an awfully good CQ4 ’19 in the places AMD’s 7nm was supposed to hit hardest Jan 29, 2020
We Add TI to our Idea Framework: Feels like a tricky time for a shift in Distribution strategy Jan 28, 2020
Scope for the first drop in the SoC Test Market in 5 years Jan 24, 2020
During a month in which China’s 5G smartphone units doubled, Japan’s MLCC units and ASP dropped Jan 22, 2020
We Add Taiwan Semiconductor to Our Idea Framework: TSMC was also sold out 20 years ago. It didn’t go all that well Jan 16, 2020
Removing Lenovo from Our Idea Generation Framework Jan 13, 2020
Removing ANET from Our Idea Generation Framework Jan 13, 2020
Novatek’s CQ4 ’19 Sales a bit better than planned, but updates from a customer and a competitor are arguably more noteworthy Jan 8, 2020
CIEN: The last time Packet Networking Sales did this was never Dec 12, 2019
Lenovo’s Server Units rebound, Server ASP continues to free fall Dec 11, 2019
Super Micro share trends starting to become a bit concerning Dec 11, 2019
We suspect CIEN will reiterate the broad strokes for FY ’20, but we see challenges in getting there Dec 11, 2019
Realtek- Things cooled a bit in November Dec 6, 2019
Lenovo estimates continue to look too high Dec 4, 2019
KEYS Commercial Communications looks poised to slow quite a bit, and not clear to us it will un-slow Nov 27, 2019
Keysight to report FQ4 ’19: 5G is clearly moving faster now, we continue to believe this has implications for later Nov 26, 2019
Strong 2H for Realtek , but scope for slowing sales and margin pressure prospectively Nov 25, 2019
Netgear’s Analyst Day: 2020 guidance feels like a stretch Nov 21, 2019
COHR Thesis Stalled — Removing from our Idea Generation Framework Nov 20, 2019
Another M/M drop in MLCC ASP marks the longest duration in > 5 years Nov 19, 2019
Super Micro FQ1 20: First constructive demand commentary in over a year; Scope to regain compliance / listing into a recovering market Nov 15, 2019
Reducing NTGR estimates as Cisco’s first decline in Commercial Orders since at least 2010 doesn’t bode well for Netgear’s most profitable business unit Nov 14, 2019
Cisco FQ1 20: Opex guidance arguably more concerning than Revenue guidance; The initiatives intended to insulate Cisco don’t appear to be working Nov 14, 2019
TDDI to sustain a bit longer than we thought but secular decline looms, OLED expectations still look aggressive to us Nov 13, 2019
Coherent to report FQ4 19: Timing a little fluid but comfort in OLED recovery remains high; Materials Processing not good, but further deterioriation feels unlikely Nov 5, 2019
ANET: Internally sourced alternatives might be a bigger problem than Server refresh cadence at one key customer, Tier 2 ICP trends are concerning Nov 1, 2019
Less than one year in, and with China supply chain localization a potential factor, scope for a “correction phase” in 5G Semi Test is already upon us Oct 31, 2019
Largest MLCC vendor globally cuts Sales guidance, does not cut Capex guidance Oct 31, 2019
Broadly utopian conditions yield below consensus results; Relevant variables changing, not clear to us why AMD’s narrative won’t follow Oct 30, 2019
A Key T&M Peer For KEYS Sees the Sharpest Slowing in Orders in Close to a Decade Oct 30, 2019
For now, Intel’s CPU units appear quite a bit stronger than we expected. For later, Intel is pretty much guaranteeing an oversupplied CPU market. Oct 25, 2019
Netgear CQ3 ’19 results: The launch of 802.11ac didn’t help Netgear, leaving us confused by different expectations for 802.11ax Oct 24, 2019
AMD: This is starting to look an awful lot like a price war Oct 4, 2019
A big pop in Japan MLCC units in July, but M/M price declines continued / worsened Sep 20, 2019
AAOI Coast not entirely clear, but scope for some headwinds to dissipate toward year end Sep 19, 2019
There goes the Server ASP Sep 12, 2019
One T&M peer already expected a lower 5G peak vs. 4G LTE, and that was before a quasi-merger between two Chinese operators Sep 11, 2019
We Add CDW to Our Idea Framework: Things have been very good, but appear to be getting less good as the next PC EOL event looms Sep 10, 2019
Yageo Removing from Our Idea Generation Framework Aug 30, 2019
We continue to have trouble squaring Synaptics’ Apple revenue, but, that may not be the most pressing problem right nowshares Aug 28, 2019
Ubiquiti Ignoring investors is one thing, ignoring customers seems quite a bit Aug 27, 2019
We Add Realtek to Our Idea Framework: Revenue sustainability questionable, Deviations like this one haven’t generally gone well for Realtek’s shares Aug 26, 2019
Japan MLCC Sales into Y/Y contraction for first time in > 2 years, while Aluminum Electrolytic has gone south in a hurry Aug 19, 2019
We Add Keysight to Our Idea Framework: When it arrived last time, it was already close to over Aug 14, 2019
Asmedia’s CQ3 ’19 Off to the Slowest Start in at Least 7 Years Aug 8, 2019
AAOI Not a Disaster, but Not Great, with Scope for Some Improvement in Quality Next Quarter Aug 8, 2019
Yageo July Sales Bounce Unlikely to Sustain; We’re Still Not Clear on CQ2 ’19 Opex Aug 7, 2019
Well Below Seasonal MLCC Sales Guide as Backlog Coverage Again Erodes; The Auto MLCC Narrative Feels a Lot Like IT MLCCs a Year Ago Aug 6, 2019
Unclear to Us Why Slowing in Cloud Won’t Spread to Slowing in Campus Aug 2, 2019
Tariffs Appear Problematic for Lenovo’s Notebook PC Sales, at a Bad Time Aug 2, 2019
Amidst Clear Pull Forward in PCs, Tough to Peg AMD’s Guidance Cut on Consoles Alone Aug 1, 2019
Confirmation of OLED Capacity Cycle Implies Incremental Annealing Sales > 2x Larger than a No Recovery Scenario in Industrial Lasers Jul 31, 2019
Coherent Guidance Likely to Undershoot Consensus on Industrial Laser Headwinds, but OLED Recovery Gathering Momentum Jul 30, 2019
Scope for first NB MPU share loss since Ryzen Mobile release; Intel’s 10nm / 7nm progress continues as checks suggest concerns with Foundry 5nm Jul 26, 2019
We think Netgear will find “undiscounting” challenging as Amazon’s hardware ambitions extend to Home WiFi Jul 25, 2019
Japan MLCC Units Below Seasonal in May, ASP Declines for the First Time This Year Jul 19, 2019
The Largest Component Vendor Cuts Guidance with DOI at a > 10 Years High Jul 16, 2019
Most Above Seasonal PC Units in > 5 Years, but Quality Appears Low, and Sustainability Questionable Jul 12, 2019
Vishay’s Cut Implies a Return to Y/Y Sales Contraction and ASP Pressure; Taiyo’s Estimate Progression Implies Neither Jul 11, 2019
Odd Timing for Acacia to be Acquired if both 600Gbps and / or 400G ZR aren’t Panning Out Jul 11, 2019
Asmedia CQ2 ’19 Sales Well Below Consensus, Challenges Extend into 2H Jul 10, 2019
Novatek’s Well Below Seasonal June Pushes CQ2 ’19 Sales Marginally Below the Consensus Jul 9, 2019
Yageo CQ2 ’19 Sales Close on a Weak Note, Reducing Estimates Given Scope for Headwinds to Extend into the Peak Procurement Season Jul 9, 2019
OLED Capacity Recovery Underway, ELA Installation Timing Firming Up Jul 2, 2019
Taiyo Yuden: Sustaining Pricing and Factory Loadings into 2H CY ’19 Feels Like a Stretch to Us Jul 1, 2019
Impacts from the latest additions to the US Entity List could expand a bit beyond the JVs Jun 25, 2019
Small Panel OLED Capacity Recovery On Track, with Visibility Now Extending Out a Bit Further Jun 19, 2019
Lenovo’s Recent Return to Smartphone Growth Could Prove Short Lived Jun 17, 2019
CIEN: Unusually Strong Start to the Year in North America Telco, but Not for WaveServer Jun 14, 2019
Ubiquiti’s WLAN and Non-WLAN Growth Slowed in CQ1 ’19, SMB WLAN Market Poised to Crowd Further as an Existing Vendor Takes a More Aggressive Shot Jun 13, 2019
Lenovo Grew Server Sales in CQ1 ’19, but We Find Composition of Growth Concerning Jun 11, 2019
Asmedia Consensus Estimates Very Likely to Again Require Downward Revision as AMD Reverses Stance on PCIe 4.0 Support Jun 10, 2019
Novatek Sales Slow for a 3rd Straight Month, and the Real Challenges Haven’t Yet Kicked In Jun 7, 2019
Yageo’s May Sales Again Below Seasonal, Significant Cuts to Consensus Appear Likely as Problems Extending Out of 2019 Jun 6, 2019
Ciena to report FQ2 ’19: Shifting Consumption / Competitive Conditions, Followed by Shifting Network Architecture Jun 5, 2019
We Find it Difficult to Square Samsung’s Interest in AMD’s GPU IP for Mobile Use Cases Roughly 10 Years After AMD Sold their GPU IP for Mobile Use Cases Jun 5, 2019
Cambium’s WISP Growth Has Outpaced Ubiquiti’s for a Sustained Stretch, Implies Unreasonable Valuation for Ubiquiti’s Non-WISP Segment May 31, 2019
Scope for Server Headwinds Now to Extend to PCs Later For Lenovo, We Question Sustainability of Recent Smartphone Strength May 30, 2019
Notable Progress for SMCI Despite a Range of Challenges Yields Scope for Shares to Re-Rate as Cyclical Headwinds Eventual Subside May 23, 2019
Lenovo to Report FQ4 ’19: Scope for More Challenging Conditions in Servers Now, More Challenging Conditions in PCs Later May 22, 2019
We Add Taiyo Yuden to Our Idea Framework: Near Term Divergences Tough to Square, We Don’t Think These Resolve Well for Taiyo May 21, 2019
Preliminary SMCI FQ3 ’19: Revenue Unsurprisingly a Bit Weaker, but Gross Margin and Cash Flow Materially Better, and First Delayed 10K is Filed May 17, 2019
CSCO Product Orders Slow and Undershoot Sales for a 3rd Straight Quarter, This Continues to Look Far More Cyclical than Secular May 16, 2019
Cisco to Report FQ3 ’19: Multiple at 10 Year High with Scope for Less Favorable Conditions Prospectively May 15, 2019
Reducing Asmedia Estimates: CQ1 ’19 Was Below Consensus, CQ2 ’19 Off to a Slow Start, CQ3 ’19 Consensus Feels Like a Stretch to Us May 14, 2019
Ubiquiti CQ1 19 Results: Enterprise Sales Slow Materially, Pricing Disclosures Appear Inconsistent with Customer Commentary May 10, 2019
Synaptics CQ1 ’19 results: Guidance Implies Earnings Run Rate > 50% Below the FY ’20 Consensus, with Bigger Problems Looming May 10, 2019
Ubiquiti could / should issue CQ1 ’19 Results: Sustainability of Top Line Growth and Repurchase Activity Questionable From Here May 9, 2019
Applied Opto CQ1 ’19 results: Assuming Things Continue to Go South from Here Feels Low Probability to Us May 9, 2019
Yageo Sales Again Well Below Seasonal as Share Loss Worsens, We Believe More Aggressive Price Competition is the Next Problem May 9, 2019
The Share Gainer in Taiwan MLCCs Sees Below Seasonal Trending, Pushing Sales into Y/Y Contraction May 8, 2019
Applied Opto to Report CQ1 ’19: Industry Conditions Clearly Remain Challenging, Difficult to See This Sustain if the Market Again Doubles as Forecast May 8, 2019
Novatek Guides CQ2 ’19 Marginally Above the Consensus, Although Monthly Trending Suggests Core DDIC Sales Again Slowed Sharply May 7, 2019
A Key Novatek Supply Chain Partner Sees Weak 1H CY ’19 as Inventory Jumps to > 10 Year High May 3, 2019
Arista CQ1 ’19 Results: Unable to Outrun Cloud Indefinitely, Scope for Enterprise Tailwinds to Fade Prospectively May 3, 2019
Both MPU Vendors Exit CQ1 ’19 with Sizeable Jumps in DSO / DOI, Both MPU Vendors Embed a Massive 2H in Largely Zero Sum Opportunities May 2, 2019
Coherent FQ2 ’19 Results: Management More Constructive on Key End Markets, Although Argubaly Underselling Improving OLED Conditions May 1, 2019
Coherent to Report FQ2 ’19 Results: Conditions Still Not Great, but Checks Suggest Recovery in OLED Capacity Orders Underway Apr 30, 2019
Ongoing MLCC Deterioration Hits the High End Apr 26, 2019
Novatek’s CQ1 ’19 Pre-Tax Margin Marginally Above Our Estimate, Although Appears to Have Deteriorated Through the Quarter Apr 26, 2019
We Are Not Certain Netgear Has Properly Diagnosed Current Challenges, While New Challenges Loom Apr 25, 2019
Optical Systems Peer Cites New Account Wins for First Gross Margin Compression in Close to Two Years Apr 23, 2019
PC Market Off to a Slow Start in 2019, We Don’t Think Lenovo Grew Units Organically Despite Notable Help Apr 12, 2019
Applied Opto’s Peers Continue Struggling as Well; Scope for Industry Relief from Facebook’s Architectural Shift Apr 11, 2019
Novatek Below Seasonal March Sales Yields First Material Y/Y Slowing in a Year Apr 9, 2019
We Add Novatek to our Idea Framework: Scope for Easing Industry Capacity Constraints to Yield More Challenging Conditions Prospectively Apr 4, 2019
A Key VGA Card Partner Sees Duration of Headwinds Extending Mar 26, 2019
Asmedia CQ4 ’18 Margins Undershot Our Estimates, Working Capital Trends Mixed Mar 19, 2019
Syna’s CEO’s Departure “Effective Immediately” Disclosed Alongside a Guidance Cut Mar 18, 2019
Yageo: Another Spike in Opex of Questionable Quality, Another Departure from the Audit Team; Sharply Reducing Estimates and Fair Value Mar 15, 2019
OLED Investment Plans Firming Mar 14, 2019
We Add Applied Optoelectronics to Our Idea Framework Mar 13, 2019
Asmedia’s February Sales Well Below Our Estimate Places CQ1 ’19 at Some Risk Mar 11, 2019
Yageo’s Estimated Organic Sales Collapse in February, with Compares Meaningfully More Difficult from Here Mar 8, 2019
Yageo’s Largest Domestic Peer Reverts Back to Well Below Seasonal Trending Mar 7, 2019
CIEN FQ1 ’19 Results: Troubling Trending in Deferred Continues, Product Growth Peaking is Generally Not a Favorable Development Mar 6, 2019
CIEN: First Look at FQ1 ’19 Results Mar 5, 2019
We Add Asmedia to Our Idea Framework: Being Tightly Tied to AMD’s Desktop CPU Business Likely Gets Tougher From Here Feb 28, 2019
Yageo’s CQ2 ’19 Recovery Might Range from Underwhelming to Non-Existent Feb 26, 2019
Optical Vendor Optimism Up, Optical Market Growth Forecast Down Feb 26, 2019
Intel 10nm Potentially a Bit Ahead of Schedule Feb 25, 2019
Arista Networks: CQ4 18 Results More Concerning than Comforting, Risks Elevated After a Year that Felt Like a High Wire Act Feb 19, 2019
Super Micro CQ4 18 Results: Lowest Multiple in a Decade Confusing as CQ4 ’18 Yields Higher Sales Guide, Higher Gross Margin and Best FCF since IPO Feb 15, 2019
Super Micro to Report CQ4 18 Results: Multiple the Same as 2008 / 2009, while Quality of Business is Higher and a Return to Normal Looms Feb 14, 2019
Yageo: Very Weak January Implies CQ1 ’19 Sales Tracking Well Below Consensus Feb 14, 2019
Cisco FQ2 19 Results: In-Line Quarter and Guide with Quality Again Suspect; Sustainability a Concern Across Several Fronts Feb 14, 2019
CSCO: While Perhaps “Not Yet”, We See Scope for More Challenging Conditions Feb 13, 2019
One Year After Entering the Home IP Security Camera Market, Amazon Set to Enter the Home WiFi Mesh Market Feb 12, 2019
SYNA: IoT / TDDI Concerns Intensify as CFO Departs Feb 8, 2019
NTGR: Scope for Low Quality CQ4 ’18 to Pressure CY ’19 Outlook Feb 8, 2019
The Last Time There Was a Delta This Wide, PC MPUs Comfortably Underperformed PC Units Feb 4, 2019
CIEN: A Few North America Capex Developments Ranging from Noteworthy to Concerning Feb 1, 2019
Materials Processing Was Last This Bad in 2008 / 2009; We Remain Comfortable an OLED Inflection Looms Jan 31, 2019
AMD Very Weak CQ1 ’19 Guide, Very Optimistic CY ’19 Guide; We Believe Degree of Difficulty Goes Up Meaningfully From Here Jan 30, 2019
Coherent to Report CQ4 ’18 Results: Not Expecting Much Improvement Now, but See Scope for Looming Display Recovery Jan 29, 2019
We Add Lenovo to Our Idea Framework: Multiple at Multi-Year High as Multi-Year Tailwinds Set to Progressively Fade Jan 25, 2019
Worst CQ4 for PC’s since 2012, Scope for CPU Concerns to Join GPU Concerns Jan 11, 2019
Yageo Sales Again Comfortably Below Seasonal Trending; Unlike Memory, Capacitor / Resistor Pricing is Only Now Starting to Correct Jan 10, 2019
AAPL Thesis Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Jan 4, 2019
Apple’s First Cut to Guidance in Over 15 Years; Scope for Challenges to Extend Beyond iPhone Jan 3, 2019
Ahead of Price Hikes, Strongest UniFi WLAN Quarter in Over Two Years; After Price Hikes, Ubiquiti Starts Offering 0% Financing Dec 21, 2018
Cisco Again Aided by Strong Tailwinds in a Low Quality FQ1 ’19; We Continue to Question Sustainability Dec 19, 2018
First Look at Ciena’s FQ4 18 Results: Feels Like an Awfully High Bar as Product Sales Set to Slow Notably Through FY ’19 Dec 14, 2018
Worst Consecutive Monthly Sales Declines on Record Drives Further Deceleration in Key US CSP Server Procurement Dec 10, 2018
Sharp Decline in Coherent’s Display Backlog Consistent with Industry Trends; Inputs Suggest Scope for Looming Recovery Dec 3, 2018
We Add Coherent to Our Framework: Inputs Suggest Scope for Recovery Post Sooner and Sharper Slowing Nov 27, 2018
We Add Ciena to Our Idea Framework: Scope for Composition of Growth Now to Prove Concerning Later Nov 16, 2018
SuperMicro CQ3 ’18 Results: We View Immaterial Restatements and Guidance Consistent with Peer Inputs as Encouraging Nov 16, 2018
Micro-Star Thesis Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Nov 16, 2018
Cisco to Report FQ1 ’19 Results: Scope for Progressively Less Favorable Conditions as Key Compares Grow More Challenging Nov 14, 2018
Wiwynn Early CQ4 ’18 Trending Much Weaker vs. a Year Ago as Cloud Headwinds Mount; We Further Reduce Our CY ’19 Estimates Nov 13, 2018
HIMX Thesis Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Nov 13, 2018
First Look Synaptics FQ1 ’19 Results: IoT Sales Collapse; TDDI / COF Trends Range from Concerning to Unsustainable; 1H CY ’19 Headwinds Loom Nov 9, 2018
Synaptics to Report CQ3 ’18 Results: COF DDIC Headwinds Mounting as Broader Smartphone Consumption Softens Nov 8, 2018
Ubiquiti to Report CQ3 ’18 Results: Price Hikes Amidst Slowing in Key Product Categories an Additional Complicating Factor Nov 8, 2018
Himax to Report CQ3 ’18 Results: Panel and WLO Developments Concerning, Multiple Premium Baffling Nov 7, 2018
A Notable Omission in Ubiquiti’s Pending Results Follows Several Arguably Concerning Disclosures Nov 6, 2018
INFN Thesis Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Nov 6, 2018
Apple CQ3 18 Results: Headwinds Materialize Earlier than Expected; No iPhone Channel Disclosures Now, Elimination of Unit Detail Later Nov 2, 2018
One Leading MLCC Vendor Sees Notable Softening in KPIs, A Second Sees a Problematic Shift in General Purpose MLCCs Oct 31, 2018
AMD Scope for Extension / Broadening of Headwinds Followed by Narrative Shift Oct 30, 2018
We View Applied Materials’ FY ’19 Display Guide as Consistent with a Looming Cliff in ELA System Deliveries, Both Collectively Problematic for Coherent May 18, 2018
With Inputs Already Suggesting Improved Capacitor Availability and Rising Inventories, Taiwanese ODMs Secure Contracted Supply from Japanese MLCC Vendors May 17, 2018
NTGR: Sharpest Drop in Inventory Purchase Commitments in Over Two Years; US Arlo Sales Smaller than our Estimates Further our Share Confusion May 16, 2018
SMCI: Our Estimates Remain Above Consensus as New Revenue Drivers Layer In, Component Availability Improves May 15, 2018
Taiyo Yuden Joins Murata in Guiding to Post Recession High Capex; Mainstream Capacitor Lead Times Drop Slightly W/W May 14, 2018
Synaptics CQ1 ’18 Results: We View OLED Optimism as Confusing, Share Loss as Root Cause for TDDI Issues, and GM Pressures as Mounting May 11, 2018
Ubiquiti CQ1 ’18 First Look: Results / Guide Below Consensus; WISP Sales Back to Contraction, Enterprise Slows Again May 10, 2018
Infinera CQ1 ’18 Results: Sharpest Drop in Deferred in 10 Years; Estimates Reduced as a Range of Concerns Surface Sooner than Expected May 10, 2018
Coherent CQ1 ’18 Deferred Again Down Substantially, Flat Panel / ELA Contribution to Backlog Lowest in Two Years May 10, 2018
We Add Infinera to Our Idea Framework: Things Are Good For Now, but We See Challenges to Attaining / Sustaining Requisite Earnings Power May 9, 2018
CY ’18 Small Panel OLED Unit Outlook Again Down Sharply; We Believe a Key Equipment Vendor is Bracing for CY ’18 Orders Down Meaningfully May 8, 2018
Arista CQ1 18 Results: Guidance Again Underwhelming as Deferred Again Drops Sharply, Billings Move to Y/Y Contraction for the First Time May 4, 2018
Super Micro CQ1 ’18: Well Above Consensus for the Third Time Since Filing Issues Materialized; New CFO’s Focus to CF a Welcome Addition May 4, 2018
Arista to Report CQ1 18 Results: 1H CY ’18 Certainly Better Be Good; Focus Remains to Shifting Consumption and Key Account Saturation May 3, 2018
Intel / Altera Comfortably Outgrows Xilinx for a 3rd Straight Quarter, including Advanced Node Outperformance; Updating Xilinx Estimates Apr 27, 2018
XLNX CQ1 ’18 First Look: CQ1 ’18 Helped by First Growth in Legacy Products in Nearly Three Years, Scope for CQ2 ’18 Help From Accounting Shift to be Material Apr 26, 2018
Netgear CQ1 ’18 Results: Promotional Spending Reduced, Arlo Loses 300bps of Share; CQ1 ’18 Included Largest Drop in ST Deferred on Record Apr 26, 2018
Netgear to Report CQ1 ’18 Results: Best Buy’s FQ4 ’18 Inventory Build a Consideration Near Term; Longer Term Competitive Developments Arguably More Concerning Apr 25, 2018
Xilinx to Report CQ1 ’18 Results Post Close: The Basis For Xilinx to Invert from Underperforming to Outperforming the SAM Remains Unclear to Us Apr 25, 2018
Super Micro’s Borrowing Terms Not Materially Changed on Refinanced Credit Facility Apr 25, 2018
STMicro to Report CQ1 ’18 Results Overnight: NT Smartphone Concerns Digested; Duration / Cycle Risks Less So Apr 24, 2018
Google Nest Outgrew Arlo, and Exited CY ’17 > 2x Larger than Arlo; Tolerance for Nest Operating Losses Concerning Apr 24, 2018
Ahead of Nasdaq Listing Hearing, Supermicro Successfully Completes Refinancing Apr 20, 2018
In-Display FP Sensors: Qualcomm’s Second Gen Ultrasonic FP Sensor Adopted by Huawei Apr 19, 2018
Concerns Mounting: LCD Pricing Was Supposed to Have Stabilized by Now; Instead, Declines in Premium Panel ASPs Have Worsened Apr 18, 2018
Updating and Re-Engaging on Arista Networks: Revenue Composition Joins Our Concerns, Alongside Key Customer Exposure and Shifting Competitive Dynamics Apr 12, 2018
Semi Industry Posts First Below Seasonal Month in Nearly Two Years Apr 3, 2018
In-Display FP Sensors: Synaptics Appears to Have Moved from Sole Sourced, to Dual Sourced, to Omitted Entirely Mar 28, 2018
3rd Party Data Confirms Challenges Faced by a Key Coherent Partner, Scope For Notable Industry Slowing Despite Continued China Spending Mar 22, 2018
A Clarification on In-Display FP Sensors We Do Not Believe Meaningfully Alters the Implications Mar 22, 2018
Synaptics In-Display FP Sensor is Displaced in Roughly 60 Days; We Suspect Some TDDI Pull Forward in 1H CY ’18 as Competitive Dynamics Intensify Mar 21, 2018
Our Work Suggests Headwinds in Korea Persist; Adoption of Micro / Mini LED Would Materially Worsen Already Problematic Intermediate Term Dynamics Mar 20, 2018
Super Micro’s Nasdaq Compliance Process Moves to Procedural Hearing; Timeline, To Date, Closely Mirrors Marvell Two Years Earlier Mar 19, 2018
VGA Card Demand Trends Appear Fine For Now, However, Increasingly Tenuous Beyond the Near Term Mar 15, 2018
Ubiquiti’s Share Repurchases vs. Disclosed Authorizations Tough to Square as Exhaustion of the Recently Revised Credit Availability Looms Mar 14, 2018
Grizzlies’ Minority Investor Developments Suggest Potential for Additional Share Sales by Ubiquiti’s CEO Mar 13, 2018
Finisar FQ3 ’18 Results: Not Good Near Term, but, We See Scope for Improvements, and View Optionality as Significant Mar 9, 2018
Finisar to Report FQ3 ’18 Results: We Struggle with Data Center TX Negativity Given Server Trends, Seems a Decent Time to Own Domestic VCSEL Capacity Mar 8, 2018
UniFi Access Point CQ4 ’17 Detail: Sales Slow Notably for a 4th Straight Quarter, ASP Down Materially for a 2nd Consecutive Quarter Mar 7, 2018
Tough to Find Evidence of Distractions as Super Micro Takes Close to 100bps of Server Share Again in CQ4 ’17 Mar 5, 2018
Ambarella FQ4 ’18 Results: Another DJI Loss Appears Confirmed by Omission; Estimates Do Not Appear De-Risked, to Us Mar 2, 2018
Ambarella to Report FQ4 ’18 Results: Multiple within Throwing Distance of Nvidia Remains Confusing to Us Given Challenges in Existing and Aspirational Markets Mar 1, 2018
Super Micro Nasdaq Extension Procedural, but March 13th Attainment Unlikely; We See Illogical Market Cap Disconnect to Peers as Business Momentum Continues Mar 1, 2018
A/R DSO More Confusing to Us Post Netgear 10K Review; Amazon Appears Increasingly Committed to Compete Aggressively in Home IP Cameras Feb 28, 2018
Ubiquiti’s First “LTU” Product Released: Checks Suggest Ample Availability, Confusing / Concerning Pricing Feb 27, 2018
(AAOI) Thesis Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Feb 26, 2018
Inconsistencies Mount with Universal Display’s Below Consensus Guide, Implying Either Looming Weakness, or a Secular Peak Feb 23, 2018
Applied Opto CQ4 17 Results: CNY Matters for the First Time Ever, 40G / 100G vs. Inventory Concerning, Facebook Disclosures Arguably More Concerning than Reassuring Feb 22, 2018
Ubiquiti: Broad Ranging SEC Subpoenas Arrive Feb 20, 2018
Synaptics’ CQ4 ’17 Sales to Samsung Collapsed; TDDI Margin / ASP Pressures Mounting ; We Continue to Question CoF Benefits / Duration, and Marvell Sustainability Feb 16, 2018
Applied Materials’ Display Segment Slows Sharply, Shift to Large Display TVs of Little / No Relevance to Coherent Given Backplane Technology Feb 15, 2018
Himax’ CQ4 17 Results: If Himax Can’t Sort Out TDDI or OLED DDIC, We Remain Confused as to How They Emerge a Vendor of Relevance in Full Solution 3D Sensing Feb 14, 2018
Himax to Report CQ4 ’17 Results: Margin Pressures in LDDI, Lack of Traction in TDDI, 3D Sensing Adoption Slow but Competitive Landscape Evolving Fast Feb 12, 2018
UBNT CQ4 ’17 Results First Look: Biggest Jump in DSO on Record as North America Sales Slow Materially, CQ1 ’18 / CQ2 ’18 Guidance Both Well Below Consensus Feb 8, 2018
Synaptics CQ4 ’17 Results: In-Line Quarter, Below Consensus Guide Despite Including First Up Q/Q CQ1 for PCs Ever, We Have Doubts on Optical FP Sensors and COF Feb 8, 2018
Coherent CQ4 17 Results: CQ1 ’18 EPS Guide Light on Weaker Margins; Biggest Q/Q Drop in Deferred in > 10 Years, First Y/Y Decline in Deferred Since 2015 Feb 8, 2018
Coherent to Report CQ4 ’17 Results: Income Statement Likely Ok For Now, But We Suspect First Bookings Decline Since 2015 Amidst Softer AMOLED Backdrop Feb 7, 2018
Netgear CQ4 ’17 Results: Arlo IPO Announced as Arlo Growth Rate Touch All-Time Low, Gross Margin Hits All-Time Low, and DSO Hits All-Time High Feb 7, 2018
Oclaro Estimates Down Again, Including Tax; We Continue to See Growth Challenges, and See Scope for 400Gbps TXs to be More Price Competitive vs. 100G Feb 7, 2018
Oclaro CQ4 17 Results: Guidance Down, Confusion Up; Not Clear Oclaro’s Margin Ambitions are Consistent with Industry Realities Feb 6, 2018
Oclaro to Report CQ4 17 Results: We Continue to See Cyclical and Secular Revenue Headwinds, Scope for Gross Margin Pressures Feb 5, 2018
Challenges Mount: 16 Weeks of GoPro Channel Inventory, Scope for Two More DJI Drone Losses This Year, More Apps Processors in Surveillance Feb 5, 2018
We Question Sustaining Utopian GPU Conditions as Ethereum Risks Loom; We Question AMD Sustaining Share as Nvidia’s Consumer Volta Looms Feb 2, 2018
Post Quarter Follow Up with Super Micro: Existing Filing Timeline Appears Intact, Scope for Upward Bias to Our Above Consensus Estimates Feb 1, 2018
SuperMicro Preliminary CQ4 ’17 Results: Broadly Favorable Results Since Investigation Commenced Argues Against Problematic Prospective Implications From Executive Departures Jan 31, 2018
Super Micro Business Update Post Close: Filing Process Appears On Track, Scope for Headwinds to Progressively Ease and Tax Rate to Decline Jan 30, 2018
Intel CQ4 ’17: Strong DCG as EPYC Inputs Remain Weak, Altera Outgrows Xilinx for a 2nd Straight Year Jan 26, 2018
Xilinx CQ4 ’17 Results: Crypto-Mining Helps (Saves) Guidance; Underperformance in a Massive Industry Upcycle Leaves Concerned with an Eventual Downcycle Jan 25, 2018
STMicro to Report CQ4 ’17 Results Overnight: Cycle Concerns, Revenue Exposure Concerns, Capacity Concerns Jan 24, 2018
TI’s First Below Seasonal Trending Since Current Industry Upcycle Started; SOX Delta to Semi Growth Back to Recent Correction Level Jan 24, 2018
Korean Press Report Suggests Scope for Downside Sooner to AMOLED Capacity Additions Jan 24, 2018
3rd Party Data Suggests Interim Display Spending Peaks Reached, Or Loom Jan 23, 2018
Cyclical and Secular Revenue Headwinds Remain for Oclaro, We Continue to See Mounting Scope for Gross Margin Challenges Jan 19, 2018
GoPro Cuts CQ4 ’17 and Exits Drones; Ambarella’s CV Offering Continues to Appear Somewhat Underwhelming for Auto ADAS Use Cases Jan 11, 2018
Weak Close to CQ4 ’17 Across the Display Supply Chain Jan 10, 2018
UniFi Access Point CQ3 ’17 Detail: If Ubiquiti Never Cuts Price, We are Confused as to Why UniFi ASPs are Collapsing Jan 3, 2018
We Add Coherent to Our Idea Framework: Markets Already Appear Concerned with Coherent’s Customers, Scope for Material AMOLED Oversupply Looms Dec 26, 2017
Synaptics’ 2017 CMD: We Believe TDDI Pressure is Already Here, We Have Doubts on In-Display, An Industry Back End Process Change as a Material Growth Driver Confuses Us Dec 14, 2017
Finisar Estimates Reduced, But Navigating 100G Dynamics Better Than Most, While Product Initiatives Progress Dec 11, 2017
First Look at Finisar’s FQ2 ’18: QSFP 28 / CWDM4 and China Dynamics Not Good for Finisar, Arguably Much Worse for Optical Peers Dec 8, 2017
Finisar to Report FQ2 ’18 Results: Still Very Few Near Term Industry Positives, But, Finisar Could / Should Have Some Offsets Dec 7, 2017
Applied Opto Pushing Out Laser Capacity as Data Center TX Sales Set to Slow Notably; We Continue to Believe Sustaining Gross Margin will be Challenging Dec 6, 2017
UniFi Access Point Sales ~ 800bps Below Our Estimate, Decelerating for a 3rd Straight Quarter; AmpliFi Does Not Appear a Valid Offset Dec 1, 2017
Ambarella FQ3 18 Results: CY ’18 Consensus Estimates Again Head Lower; Demo of CV Silicon Roughly 6 Months Behind ARM’s C71 Auto ISP Dec 1, 2017
SIMO Thesis Relevance Diminishing – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Nov 30, 2017
MRVL Price Target Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Nov 30, 2017
Marvell FQ3 ’18 Results: Into CY ’18 Networking Positively Inflects, Headwinds from HDD Controller Inventories Dissipate Nov 29, 2017
AMD Estimated Back to Pre-Polaris GPU Share following CQ3 ’17 Share Loss; We Continue to See Scope for Notable Slowing in GPU Units in 2018 Nov 27, 2017
Marvell Guides FQ3 ’18 Marginally Above the Consensus; Confirms Planned Acquisition of Cavium Nov 21, 2017
AMD Hemorrhages CPU Share on Steam in October, MB / VGA Card Inputs Soften Post Asus’ Caution Nov 17, 2017
Updating SYNA Estimates: Acquired Marvell Assets Join Our List of Concerns; TDDI Market Deteriorating Faster than We Prior Contemplated Nov 15, 2017
Himax CQ3 17 Results: Alarming Core Biz Share Loss; Apple Dynamics Perplexing; Unclear Why Android OEMs Will Pay 20% More than Apple for 3D Sensing Nov 13, 2017
Ubiquiti CQ3 ’17 Results: Working Capital Growth Slows, Sales Guided > 500bps below Consensus; Opex per Employee Hits All Time Low Nov 9, 2017
Two Years After Losing the Head of CPUs to Tesla, AMD Loses the Head of GPUs to Intel; We Are Skeptical of Benefits from Custom GPU for Intel Nov 9, 2017
Himax to Report CQ3 ’17 Results: DDIC Trends Soft, Sharp Growth in Touch Controllers Not Sustainable, We Are Less Optimistic on 3D Sensing Nov 8, 2017
Synaptics CQ3 ’17 Results: FY 18 Sales Guide Cut on Confirmed Samsung Loss; Marvell Contribution Ranges from Confusing to Concerning Nov 8, 2017
Applied Opto CQ3 17 Results: 40Gbps Sales ex-AMZN Appear to Have Grown Q/Q; > 50% of DC Sales Still Subject to Ongoing Pressures; Earnings Quality Erodes Nov 8, 2017
Applied Opto to Report CQ3 17 Results: Sustaining Facebook a NT Concern; Sustaining GM as LR4 Vendors Crowd into CWDM4 an Intermediate Term Concern Nov 7, 2017
Synaptics to Report CQ3 ’17 Results: Close of Marvell Deal Does Not Appear in CQ3 ’17 Estimates; Continued Share and ASP Concerns in Organic Businesses Nov 7, 2017
Oclaro CQ3 17 Results: Near Term is Worse; Intermediate Term is Arguably Much More Concerning Nov 2, 2017
Oclaro to Report CQ3 17 Results: Softness Beyond China Near Term; Elevated Component Capex Intersects Reduced Port Consumption Intermediate Term Nov 1, 2017
Silicon Motion CQ3 17 Results: Estimates Down Again; Market Risks and Market Share Risks Remain Oct 31, 2017
Super Micro Preliminary CQ3 ’17 Results: Filing Delay Still Doesn’t Overly Problematic; CY ’18 Should Bring Tailwinds Oct 30, 2017
Netgear CQ3 17 Results: Estimates Down Again; Amazon’s Entry and Swann’s Wire Free SKU Leave Us Concerned Competition May Not Cooperate Oct 27, 2017
Xilinx CQ3 ’17 Results: CY ’18 Estimates Remain Below Consensus on Comms Contraction, Industrial Sustainability, Competitiion Oct 26, 2017
Xilinx to Report CQ3 17 Results: Scope for Elongated 5G Spend and Crowding DB Inferencing Landscape to Pressure Elevated Multiple Oct 25, 2017
AMD CQ3 ’17 Results: Suspect Quality, Our View Remains More Challenging Conditions Loom Oct 25, 2017
AMD to report CQ3 17 Results: VGA Cards Help CQ3 17 but We See Some Slowing, Scope for Tailwinds to Fade as Competitive Responses Mount Oct 24, 2017
Preliminary AAOI CQ3 ’17 Results: Sharpest Cut to Sales Guide Since Coming Public, Competitive Crowding in 100Gbps Does Not Appear Transitory Oct 13, 2017
Data Center Transceiver Discussion Focuses to “Very Challenging Economics”, Competitive Crowding Oct 6, 2017
Silicon Motion Preliminary CQ3 ’17 Results Due: Near Term Dynamics Appear Challenging, Slope of NAND Supply Remains an Intermediate Term Concern Oct 5, 2017
Super Micro Filing Delay Unexpected and Unwanted, But Does Not Appear Structurally Problematic Sep 28, 2017
Ubiquiti CMD: Comfort with Low End of Guidance Perhaps the Lone Tangible Takeaway; Many Issues Unaddressed Sep 27, 2017
Scope for Focus to Shift from Optical Component “Catch-Up”, to Slowing Optical Systems Demand in China Sep 26, 2017
Possible Tesla AI SoC, Developed by Engineers Who No Longer Work for AMD Sep 21, 2017
UniFi CQ2 ’17 Sales and Shipment Detail: Ranging from Confusing to Alarming Sep 18, 2017
Panel Trends Range from Soft to Concerning; A/R Initiatives from Apple and Google Do Not Require Dedicated 3D Scanning Sep 15, 2017
FocalTech’s CQ3 ’17 Sales Tracking Well on TDDI Ramp; We Continue to See TDDI Inverting to Headwind for Synaptics Sep 14, 2017
Finisar FQ1 ’18 Results: Not Good for Finisar, Arguably Worse for Peers Sep 8, 2017
AMD’s Biggest Drop in CPU Share on Steam since the Ryzen Launch Sep 7, 2017
Finisar to Report FQ1 ’18 Results: Again Very Few Industry Positives Near Term; Again Post-Recession Trough Multiple Sep 7, 2017
Ambarella FQ2 ’18 Results: Drones Appear to Have Become Sports Cameras, Multiple Expansion Amidst Eroding Fundamentals Remains Perplexing Sep 1, 2017
Super Micro Delays 10K Filing: Appears Benign vs. Two Years Ago, While Fundamental Backdrop Appears Far More Favorable vs. Two Years Ago Aug 31, 2017
Oclaro Addresses China Mobile Tender, but Discussion of Data Center Dynamics Perhaps More Interesting Aug 29, 2017
Ubiquiti FY 17 10K: First Ever Annual Guide Comes with Intent to Sell Disclosure from CEO; Ex-Ingram DSO Expands Again Aug 29, 2017
Marvell FQ2 ’18 Results First Look: Scope for Today’s Headwinds to be Tomorrow’s Tailwinds Aug 25, 2017
China Mobile OTN Tender: Shift to Metro and Significantly Higher Industry Capacity Likely Carry Pricing Implications Aug 25, 2017
Marvell to Report FQ2 ’18 Results: HDD Headwinds NT, but, Nidec’s Revised Outlook Implies Well Above Seasonal CQ1 ’18 HDD TAM Aug 24, 2017
Oclaro’s FY ’17 10K: Customer / Competitor Disclosures Shift, Gross Margin Disclosures Puzzling, A Notable Risk Factor is Reordered Aug 22, 2017
Post-Recession High Taiwan PC OEM and PC MPU Inventories: Last Time Inventories Did This, Both Intel and AMD Cut Guidance Aug 14, 2017
Updating Synaptics Estimates: We Continue to See Risks to Downwardly Revised Organic Sales Guidance Aug 7, 2017
Applied Opto CQ2 17 Results: Amazon / 40G / ASP Concerns Now; Competition / Industry Capacity / Margin Concerns Later Aug 4, 2017
Synaptics CQ2 ’17 Results: CQ3 ’17 Well Below Consensus, with Acquisitions and a 14th week; Tough to Square Guide w/ Optical FP Sensor at Key Customer Aug 4, 2017
Oclaro CQ2 17 Results: CQ3 ’17 Guide Marginally Above, But Implied CQ4 ’17 Below; Balance Sheet Strain and ZTE Trending Concerning Aug 3, 2017
Ubiquiti Receivables Again Well Outpace Sales, Another Spike in LatAm; FY ’18 Guidance Perplexing / Aggressive Aug 3, 2017
Synaptics to Report CQ2 ’17 Results: Share Concerns Continue Aug 3, 2017
We See Risks to Sharply Reduced SIMO CY ’17 Guidance Given Apple’s Ramp, Sources of NAND Supply, and Share Considerations Aug 2, 2017
Ubiquiti to Report CQ2 ’17 Results: Slowing Enterprise, Difficult LatAm Compare Aug 2, 2017
Oclaro to Report CQ2 17 Results: China and Forex Near Term; Pricing, Product Transitions and Share Longer Term Aug 2, 2017
Silicon Motion CQ2 ’17 Results: Guidance Well Below Consensus; Market Conditions Appear Amplified by SSD Controller Share Loss Aug 1, 2017
Silicon Motion to Report CQ2 ’17 Results: Well Below Seasonal Hynix eMMC Sales Alongside SSD Headwinds Jul 31, 2017
AUO CQ2 ’17 Results: Demand Outlook Down, Panel ASP’s Down, Capacity Up Jul 28, 2017
Xilinx CQ2 ’17 Results: India Joins Comms Softness, No Backlog Disclosure for First Time in Years Jul 27, 2017
Netgear CQ2 17 Results: DSO Hits All Time High as GM Matches All Time Low; We See Arlo Share Tailwind Dissipating Prospectively Jul 27, 2017
AMD CQ2 ’17 Results: Higher Sales on Tenuous Crypto Boost Yields Lower NG EPS; Things Get Harder From Here Jul 26, 2017
Xilinx to Report CQ2 17 Results: 5G and DB Inferencing Landscapes Remain Unsettled Jul 26, 2017
We Add Super Micro to Our Framework: One Year Later, Several Headwinds with Scope to Become Tailwinds Jul 25, 2017
AMD to report CQ2 17 Results: Crypto-Currency Now, Coffee Lake Later Jul 25, 2017
Innolight’s Merger Likely Closes in CQ2 ’17: 40G / 100G Gross Margin Contracted as Amazon Became > 10% of Sales Jul 20, 2017
Applied Opto Preliminary CQ2 ’17 Results: Challenges Loom as Applied Opto’s Operating Margin Now Approximates Finisar’s Average Gross Margin Jul 14, 2017
1H CY ’17 PC Units Nearly Exactly Seasonal Despite Kaby Lake and Ryzen, NB Builds Continue to Look Problematic to Us Jul 13, 2017
Well Above Seasonal June 2017 VGA Card Sales Intersect a 50% Decline in Ethereum From Interim Peak Jul 11, 2017
UniFi Access Point Units Slowed Sharply during CQ1 ’17 , We See Scope for ASP Tailwinds to Fade Prospectively Jul 10, 2017
AU Optronics’ CQ2 ’17 Sales Below Guidance: Short Respite Possible Near Term, but Capacity Ramps are Now Underway Jul 7, 2017
AMD Loses CPU Share on Steam for a 4th Consecutive Month, Share Loss Across All Clock Speeds Jul 6, 2017
AMD Launches EPYC, Footnote Disclosures Seem Relevant Ahead of Intel’s Purley Release Jun 22, 2017
Large UK WISP Moves From Trialing Cambium’s Elevate to Displacing Ubiquiti in Roughly 3 Months Jun 16, 2017
Finisar FQ4 ’17 Results: Positive Optionality Surfacing, But Industry Developments Remain Broadly Concerning Jun 16, 2017
Finisar to Report FQ4 ’17 Results: Very Few Positives Near Term, but Scope for Valuation and Optionality to Provide Offsets Jun 15, 2017
Synaptic’s CQ2 ’17 Guide Cut Amidst TDDI and FP Sensor Cross Currents; Concurrent Acquisitions Questionable Given Underwhelming Track Record Jun 13, 2017
40Gbps Switch Ports Decline Q/Q for a 3rd Straight Quarter, Y/Y Decline Worsens Materially Jun 12, 2017
AMD Loses CPU Share on Steam for a 3rd Consecutive Month, High-End Share Hardest Hit Jun 9, 2017
Ambarella FQ1 ’18 Results: Share Loss Also Includes Nest, Multiple Expansion Amidst Eroding Fundamentals Remains Confusing to Us Jun 7, 2017
April 2017 Semi Industry Sales Again Above Seasonal; Revised Forecast Suggests Scope for Notable Slowing Prospectively Jun 7, 2017
We Add STMicro to Our Idea Framework: Scope for Less Favorable Cyclical Dynamics as Focus Shifts from Pursuing to Sustaining Key Smartphone Sockets Jun 6, 2017
Ambarella to Report FQ1 ’18 Results: Competitive Pressure Extends to Drones; ARM an Incremental Problem for Auto Ambitions Jun 6, 2017
Discrete GPU Unit Market Moves Back to Y/Y Contraction Off an Easy Compare; Console Gaming Headwinds Mount May 30, 2017
Marvell FQ1 ’18 Results: Estimates Marginally Higher Despite Near Term Concerns Materializing; Product Cycle Benefits Still Pending May 26, 2017
Marvell to Report FQ1 ’18 Results: Some Near Term Concerns, But Intermediate Term A Rare Combination of Potential Positives May 25, 2017
Dycom Guides Well Below Consensus on Capex Pull-Forward, Backlog Moves into Y/Y Contraction May 25, 2017
We Add Finisar to Our Idea Framework: Six Months Later, Trough Multiple Despite Optionality on Several Product Opportunities May 22, 2017
Indications of Potentially Problematic Supply Chain Volatility in Ubiquiti’s Enterprise Products May 19, 2017
AMD’s 2017 CMD: We View Competitive Responses as More Salient, Difficult to Spot Intel License Deal in Gross Margin Guide May 17, 2017
Scope for Capacity Shifting to QSFP28 and Ramping SiPhotonics to Challenge 100G Data Center Supply / Demand Balance May 16, 2017
Roughly Two Months Post Launch, Ryzen Price Cuts Start Surfacing May 15, 2017
Himax CQ1 17 Results: Estimates Down, Risks Up; Substantial Premium to 3D Sensing Exposed Peers Confusing to Us May 12, 2017
AUO’s CQ1 ’17 Results Above Our Estimates, but March / April Sales Soften Significantly May 10, 2017
Post Ryzen 7 and Ryzen 5 Availability, AMD Loses CPU Share on Steam for a 2nd Consecutive Month May 8, 2017
Ubiquiti CQ1 ’17 Results: Smallest Sales Upside in a Year, A/R DSO Jumps Again while A/R DSO to Largest Customer Nears 90 Days May 5, 2017
Applied Opto CQ1 17 Results: Concerns Heightened as Collapsing CFP Sales Accelerate Competitors’ Pushes to QSFP28 May 5, 2017
Ubiquiti to Report CQ4 ’17 Results: Scope for Slowing Enterprise Sales with Ubiquiti Over-Indexed to a Declining 802.11N Market May 4, 2017
Oclaro CQ1 17 Results: 2H CY ’17 Sales Guide ~ 1,000bps Below Consensus; Scope for Pricing and Margin Risks to Follow Demand Deterioration May 3, 2017
AMD CQ1 17 Results: One Quarter into Ryzen Launch — Inventory Days to > 10 Years High, Gross Margin Guided Down May 2, 2017
Oclaro to Report CQ1 17 Results: Mounting Challenges to Sustaining All Time High Margins May 2, 2017
AMD to report CQ1 17 Results: Disruption From AMD’s Initiatives Remains Difficult for us to Spot May 1, 2017
Synaptics CQ1 ’17 Results: TDDI Sales Again Miss Our Model, TDDI Share Loss Likely Starting in CQ2 ’17 Apr 28, 2017
Netgear CQ1 ’17 Results: NG EPS Guide Well Below Consensus; Margins Compress as Competitive Dynamics Intensify Apr 27, 2017
Synaptics to Report CQ1 ’17 Results: Concerns Mounting, Our 2H CY ’17 Estimates Well Below Consensus Apr 27, 2017
AMS Doubles 2017 Capex Plan, Now > 5x Larger Than Himax’ 2017 Capex Budget Apr 26, 2017
Netgear to Report CQ1 ’17 Results: Largest End Market Contracting and Crowding Apr 26, 2017
FNSR: Price Target Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Apr 24, 2017
AU Optronics’ CQ1 ’17 Sales Marginally Above Our Estimate; Positives Thinning Out from CQ2 ’17 Onward Apr 19, 2017
TSMC Flags “Quite Severe PC Inventory Adjustment”; AMD’s Ryzen Rankings Further Deteriorate Apr 17, 2017
Hikvision CQ1 ’17 Sales Below Consensus, A/R DSO to Post Recession High, DOI Up Again Apr 13, 2017
Applied Opto Raises CQ1 ’17 Guide Although Magnitude Less Than Recent Periods, Sustainability Concerns Unchanged Apr 13, 2017
CQ1 ’17 PC Units Marginally Below Our Estimate, Price Hikes to be a “Much Bigger Problem” Prospectively Apr 12, 2017
AMD Loses CPU Share on Steam in First Month of Ryzen Availability Apr 7, 2017
Scope for First Ever Decline in China’s 4G LTE BTS Installations Apr 4, 2017
Huawei Raw Material Up Again, Payments to Suppliers Down, R&D Highlights Silicon Optics Apr 3, 2017
We Add Applied Opto to Our Idea Framework: Sailing Potentially Less Smooth as 40Gbps Demand Drops, 100Gbps Supply Increases Mar 30, 2017
Console Gaming Headwinds Continue as Ryzen Inputs Remain Underwhelming Mar 27, 2017
Apple Pushing Further into Video Content Creation, Editing and Distribution Mar 22, 2017
Negligible Momentum Detected for Ubiquiti’s AmpliFi Home WiFi Systems Mar 20, 2017
Scope for AMS to Target Apple’s 3D Sensing with In-House VCSEL’s and In-House Optical Packaging Mar 17, 2017
Scope for Samsung Developments to Place Strain on Our Below Consensus SYNA Estimates Mar 16, 2017
AUO: February Sales Above Our Estimate, Demand / Supply Risks Loom Mar 15, 2017
Finisar FQ3 ’17 Results: Headwinds Afflict the Other ~ 90% of Sales as Record Capacity Addtions Continue Mar 10, 2017
Finisar to Report FQ3 ’17 Results: Gross Margin Estimates 2 SD’s Above Mean as Capacity Adds Continue and Products Crowd Mar 9, 2017
AMD’s Ryzen Day 1: Problematic Misfire on Gaming, Intel Holds 4 of Top 5 CPU Spots on Amazon post Ryzen Release Mar 3, 2017
Marvell FQ4 ’17 Results: Further Gross Margin Progress, Further SSD Controller Share Gains Mar 3, 2017
Competitive Responses Begin Ahead of AMD’s Ryzen / Vega Launches Mar 2, 2017
Ambarella FQ4 ’17 Results: Share Loss in Existing Core Markets Problematic as Presence in Aspirational Markets Appears Far From Secure Mar 1, 2017
Ambarella to Report FQ4 ’17 Results: Notable GoPro Differences vs. 2016; Home IP Cams Likely Face At Least Seasonal Pressure Feb 28, 2017
ACIA: Price Target Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Feb 27, 2017
Acacia CQ4 ’16 Results: Weak Guide With or Without Adva, We Believe ZTE is the Next Problem Feb 24, 2017
Acacia to Report CQ4 ’16 Results: Largest Customers at Multi-Year DOI Highs; DCI Refreshes Pending from Non-ACIA Vendors Feb 23, 2017
Arista CQ4 ’16 Results: Microsoft Contribution Well Above Plan, Sales Growth ex-Microsoft Slows For 3rd Straight Year Feb 17, 2017
Himax to Report CQ4 ’16 Results: DDIC Share Pressure the Next Problem Feb 15, 2017
AUO: Excellent CQ4 ’16 results, But, China Inventory Up and Panel ASP’s Decelerating Prior to Sustained Industry Capacity Additions Feb 14, 2017
UBNT: A Number of Cautionary Inputs During a Quarter in Which Ubiquiti Dismissed Their Audtior Feb 10, 2017
Ubiquiti to Report CQ4 ’16 Results: WISP 802.11AC Demand Remains Tepid, Hopeful for Discussion of Latest Legal Development Feb 9, 2017
Netgear CQ4 16 Results: Sales Up, Receivables Up, Channel Inventory Up, Guide Down Feb 8, 2017
GoPro CQ4 16 Results: Sales Miss, Balance Sheet Inventory Up, Excess Hero5 Channel Inventory, Well Below Consensus Guide Feb 3, 2017
Reducing SIMO Estimates, But Full Range of Concerns Not Yet Reflected Feb 2, 2017
AMD CQ4 ’16 Results: Material Line Item Volatility with Another Multi-Year High in Channel GPU’s, Intel’s View the Next Input Feb 1, 2017
First Look at Oclaro’s CQ4 ’16 Results: Capex Guided Up, GM Guided Down, Sales Guided to Slow Feb 1, 2017
AMD to report CQ4 16 Results: Game Consoles NT Focus, Intel’s Pending CMD May Inform on Competitive Response(s) Jan 31, 2017
Synaptics CQ4 ’16 Results: TDDI Sales Sharply Miss Our Model, Risks Mount on Samsung / China / Apple Jan 27, 2017
Xilinx CQ4 16 Results: Sales Marginally Better, but Advanced Products Slow Sharply; 2nd Spike in A/R DSO in 4 Quarters Jan 26, 2017
Synaptics to Report CQ4 ’16 Results: NT Consensus Est’s Confusing, We Do Not Expect Much Help from Samsung FP Sensors Jan 26, 2017
Xilinx to Report CQ4 16 Results: Multiple at 10 year high as Communications Slows, AI Landscape Unsettled Jan 25, 2017
First Look at SIMO’s CQ4 ’16 Results: CQ4 ’16 Quality Low, CQ1 ’17 Guidance Well Below Consensus Jan 24, 2017
OCLR: Another Look at Gross Margin: Benefit from 100Gbps Mix Had Already Softened Materially in CQ3 ’16 Jan 20, 2017
TDDI Unit Aspirations from Synaptics + Focaltech Sum to > 100% of the CY ’17 TDDI Unit Market Jan 19, 2017
Oclaro Marginally Raises Sales Guide as Peer Notes CY 17 Procurement Cut from Huawei; Operating Model Unsustainable Jan 19, 2017
GameStop’s FQ4 ’17 Guide Cut Follows TSMC’s Sharply Lower CQ4 ’16 Consumer Sales Jan 17, 2017
AMD: TSMC’s CQ4 ’16 Consumer Segment Perhaps Problematic, CQ4 ’16 PC Units Largely a Non-Event Jan 13, 2017
INTC: Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Jan 13, 2017
SYNA: Sustaining 70% TDDI Share Implies Scope for 2H CY ’17 TDDI Sales Decline, Samsung Share Risks Increase Jan 12, 2017
AMBA: GoPro Dynamics a Bit More Concerning Than We Thought, Concerns Extend Beyond GoPro Jan 11, 2017
We Add Advanced Microdevices to Our Idea Framework: Transition from “It Could be Great” to “It Better Be Great” Looms Jan 9, 2017
Fingerprint Cards Secures First Design Wins at Samsung on NB PC’s Dec 21, 2016
Neophotonics Cuts CQ4 ’16 Sales Guide, Raises CQ4 ’16 Opex Guide on CFP-DCO Launch Dec 20, 2016
China’s Optical Market Slows by ~ 800bps in CQ3 ’16; ZTE Loses Share Globally Dec 14, 2016
FINGB: Price Target Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Dec 14, 2016
Ubiquiti’s Auditor the Latest Departure; A/R DSO of Ubiquiti’s Largest Customer Well Above Standard Credit Terms Dec 12, 2016
Finisar FQ2 ’17 Results: CY ’16 Was Outstanding, but Margin Compression and Growth Deceleration Loom Dec 9, 2016
We Add Finisar to Our Idea Framework: Tougher From Here, as Problematic Industry Inputs Continue Dec 8, 2016
Fingerprint Cards Cuts CY ’16 Guidance, Guides CY ’17 EPS Below Consensus Dec 8, 2016
Ambarella FQ3 ’17 Results: Exposure to Volatile and Short Cycle Consumer End Markets is Increasing, Not Decreasing Dec 2, 2016
Cambium Directly Targets Ubiquiti’s WISP Installed Base with ePMP Elevate Dec 1, 2016
Ambarella to Report FQ3 ’17 Results: Movidius’ Win at Hikvision Caps a Series of Problematic Inputs Nov 30, 2016
Marvell FQ3 ’17 Results: Gross Margin Progression Accelerates, SSD Sales Imply Marvell Has Regained Merchant Lead Nov 18, 2016
Cisco’s Service Provider Orders Decline Matches Sharpest Decline Since the 2008 / 2009 Recession Nov 17, 2016
Marvell to Report CQ3 ’16 Results: We Are More Interested in the Pending Analyst Day Nov 17, 2016
Netgear CY ’16 Analyst Day: Underwhelming New Product, Cut to Forecasted CAGR in Web Managed Switching Nov 16, 2016
Updating HIMX Estimates: We Believe Premium Valuation Will Prove Difficult to Sustain Given Challenging Growth Outlook Nov 15, 2016
Acacia CQ3 ’16 Results: Sales to Adva and ZTE ~ 2.5x Faster than 100G Port Growth, Sales ex-Adva and ZTE Slow Notably Nov 11, 2016
Acacia to Report CQ3 ’16 Results: Component Narrative Remains, But Cautionary Inputs Spreading Nov 10, 2016
HIMX: First Look at CQ3 ’16 Results: Hololens Expectations Slashed, AMOLED DDIC at Samsung Shelved Nov 10, 2016
Himax to Report CQ3 ’16 Results: Ahead of Results, Consensus Forward Estimates Again Move Appreciably Lower Nov 9, 2016
NTGR: Lowest Retail Segment Operating Margin On Record as Discounts Spread to Arlo Cameras Nov 8, 2016
FFIV: Price Target Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Nov 4, 2016
GoPro CQ3 ’16 Component Inventory Increases ~ 4x Q/Q, CY ’16 Guidance Cut Nov 4, 2016
First Look at UBNT CQ3 ’16 Results: First Two Quarters Under New Chief Accounting Officer Strongly Resemble Those Under the Former CFO Nov 4, 2016
Pre-Holiday Dynamics Concerning at Both GoPro and DJI Nov 3, 2016
Oclaro CQ3 16 Results: Capex Again Revised Higher, Model Leverage Joins Our CY ’17 Concerns Nov 2, 2016
Silicon Motion Outshipping Hynix’ MCP’s while Hynix Depletes NAND Inventory Create Scope for 1H CY ’17 Challenges Nov 1, 2016
Oclaro Will Report FQ1 ’17 Results Post the Close Nov 1, 2016
First Look at SIMO’s CQ3 ’16 Results: Seeking Clarity on Loan Required for Unwind of Intercompany Transactions Oct 28, 2016
Synaptics CQ3 16 Results: Gross Margin Collapses Ahead of CY ’17 Risks Oct 28, 2016
Netgear CQ3 ’16 Results: Revenue Quality Again Suspect, Gross Margin Compression Tough to Square with Seasonal Trending Oct 27, 2016
F5 CQ3 ’16 Results: Strongest Q/Q Product Growth in 5 Years, Product Cycle Tailwinds Loom Oct 27, 2016
Optical: Adva Guides CQ4 ’16 Sales Well Below Consensus; Continued Softness at Nokia and Infinera Oct 27, 2016
Silicon Motion to Report CQ3 ’16 Results: Current Supply / Demand Tightness and Competitive Pressures Key Risks into CY ’17 Oct 27, 2016
II-VI’s Optical Bookings and Sales Both Decline Sequentially Oct 26, 2016
Netgear to Report CQ3 ’16 Results: Retail Compares Progressively Tougher as WiFi Category Crowds Oct 26, 2016
F5 to Report CQ3 ’16 Results: Some Positive Inputs Emerging, CQ4 ’16 Estimates Remain Above Consensus Oct 25, 2016
Axis’ First Y/Y Decline in Video Sales In Over a Decade; Hikvision’s Inventory Grows ~ 3x Faster Than Sales Oct 21, 2016
Xilinx CQ3 16 Results: Backlog Down for 3rd Straight Quarter, Attaining FY ’17 Sales Guide Requires Best Quarter in > 5 Years Oct 20, 2016
Intel CQ3 ’16 Results: DCG Sales to Miss Guidance for 4th Time in 6 Years, Balance Sheet Remains Concerning Oct 19, 2016
Xilinx to Report CQ3 16 Results: Consumption Headwinds Mount as Advanced Node Competition Escalates Oct 19, 2016
Intel to Report CQ3 ’16 Results: Scope for PC’s to Invert Back to Risk, We Remain Below Intel’s CY ’16 DCG Guide Oct 18, 2016
XLNX: Adjusting CQ3 ’16 Estimates; Altera’s 14nm Stratix 10 Now Sampling Oct 17, 2016
DLink Q3 16 Sales Miss; Netgear and Ubiquiti Prices Below List Oct 13, 2016
AUO’s CQ3 ’16 Sales Marginally Above Our Estimates; Panel Pricing Momentum Starting to Wane Oct 12, 2016
One Month After ZTE Warned of Difficult 2H CY ’16, Ericsson Guides CQ3 ’16 Sharply Below Consensus Oct 12, 2016
FINGB: Share Pressures Mount as Smartphone Saturation Looms Oct 7, 2016
Dialog Raises CQ3 ’16 Guide: Heightened Supply Chain Volatility Near Term, Probable Apple Share Gains Intermediate Term Oct 6, 2016
Home Mesh WiFi Category Crowds Further as Netgear’s Arlo Compares Grow Progressively Tougher Oct 5, 2016
Adjusting OCLR FY ’17 Estimates Post Secondary and Peer Inputs, Remain Below Consensus Oct 4, 2016
Parrot Cuts Outlook on Mid-Range Drone Market Pricing Pressure Sep 26, 2016
FINGB: Valid Interest From a Company 20% Smaller Appears Low Probability Sep 22, 2016
INTC: Estimates Higher on PC Channel Stocking, But Quality Suspect Sep 19, 2016
SIMO: Softer China Smartphone Inputs, While Apple Keeps the NAND Market Tight Sep 15, 2016
Softer China Smartphone Inputs, Our 2H CY ’16 Estimates (FINGB) Remain Below Consensus Sep 14, 2016
Synaptics Unable to File Form 10K On Time Aug 26, 2016
ZTE’s Carrier Networks Sales Slow Sharply, Inventory Jumps, 2H Outlook Cautious Aug 26, 2016
We Add Acacia Communications to Our Idea Framework: ZTE Now Squarely in Estimates, Market Cap Implies / Requires Tier One Penetration Aug 25, 2016
Silicon Motion’s Largest eMMC Customer Now Mass Producing UFS 2.1 with Internally Sourced Controllers Aug 22, 2016
We Add AU Optronics to Our Idea Framework: Brief Respite Now, More Chinese Capacity and OLED Threats Later Aug 19, 2016
Cisco’s 2nd Consecutive Decline in Router Sales, Service Provider Orders Turn Negative Aug 18, 2016
Intel’s Project Alloy Another Non-Himax Based Alternative for AR / VR Consumption Aug 17, 2016
Acacia’s Results Appear a Lot Closer to In-Line Normalized for ZTE; CFP-DCO Traction in North America a Risk to CFP2-ACO Aug 12, 2016
Himax CQ2 ’16 Results Initial Look: Poor Quality Heightens Near Term Estimate Risk Aug 11, 2016
China Mobile’s 4G LTE and Transmission Capex Poised for 2H CY ’16 Declines Aug 11, 2016
July 2016 PC Channel Sales Broadly Below Seasonal Amidst Cautionary Server Inputs Aug 10, 2016
Soft DDIC Outlook From A Second Key Foundry as AMOLED DDIC Competition Escalates Aug 9, 2016
Arista CQ2 ’16 Results: Microsoft Tailwinds to Fade, White Box Headwinds to Mount, Margin Compression Likely Aug 5, 2016
Ubiquiti CQ2 ’16 Results: Curious Spike in WISP Sales to South America, Sequential Momentum Fading as Inventory Days Jump Aug 5, 2016
For the 6th Consecutive Quarter, FiberHome’s Inventory Growth Comfortably Exceeds Sales Growth Aug 4, 2016
Arista to Report CQ2 ’16 Results: Key Cloud Customers Implied 2H Capex Spend Below Seasonal Aug 4, 2016
Ubiquiti to Report CQ2 ’16 Results: Later Innings on UniFi Refresh as R&D Spend Atrophies Aug 4, 2016
Oclaro CQ2 ’16 Results: China 100G Port Growth Outlook Down, Capex Sharply Up Aug 3, 2016
Xilinx CQ2 16 Results: Highest Turn Fill in Nearly 3 Years Required; Huawei Displacing IDTI with Internal ASICs Worth Noting Aug 2, 2016
Oclaro to Report FQ4 16 Results: Narrative Likely Reiterated, But Cracks Emerging Aug 2, 2016
FINGB: Pre-Dating Looming Headwinds, FPC’s 1H CY ’16 Sales Undershoot the Consensus by ~ 800bps Aug 1, 2016
Synaptics CQ2 16 Results: Sales to Samsung Collapse, Qualitative Guide Again Aggressive Jul 29, 2016
Netgear CQ2 ’16 Results: Channel Stocking Aids CQ2 Sales, Guide Well Below Seasonal Jul 28, 2016
Marvell FQ1 ’17 Results: First Double Digit Networking Growth in over 5 Years, Recouping SSD Controller Share Jul 28, 2016
Amidst “Sold Out” Optical Components, Infinera’s Bookings Drop Sharply on Excess Systems Inventory Jul 28, 2016
We Add Silicon Motion to Our Idea Framework: Scope For One or More Recent Tailwinds To Invert to Headwinds Jul 27, 2016
LLTC: Thesis Invalidated – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Jul 27, 2016
Netgear to Report CQ2 ’16 Results: Elevated Insider Selling As Home WiFi Competition Mounts Jul 27, 2016
Xilinx to Report CQ2 16 Results: Prior to China Slowing, Altera Appears to Have Gained PLD Share in 1H CY ’16 Jul 27, 2016
Check Point CQ2 ’16 Results: Low Quality Results, Guide Below Consensus With our Without Deferred Impact Jul 26, 2016
Linear to Report CQ2 ’16 Results: We Model a Seasonal CQ3 ’16 as Linear Returns to Shipping Above Consumption Jul 26, 2016
Check Point to Report CQ2 ’16 Results: Above Seasonal CQ3 ’16 Required Jul 25, 2016
Maxim CQ2 ’16 Results: Distribution Inventory Jumps to Post-Recession High, Automotive Slows Jul 22, 2016
F5 CQ2 ’16 Results: Targeted Installed Base is ~ 70% Larger Now vs. the Prior Product Refresh Cycle Jul 21, 2016
Intel CQ2 16 Results: 2H CY ’16 Data Center Risks, Balance Sheet Again Deteriorates Jul 21, 2016
Fingerprint Cards to Report CQ2 ’16 Results: Softer Key Customer Demand and China Pull-Ins are 2H Risks Jul 21, 2016
Marvell FQ4 ’16 Results: Transitioning From Defense to Offense, Increasing Fair Value Jul 20, 2016
SMCI: Price Target Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Jul 20, 2016
F5 to Report CQ2 ’16 Results: Compares Progressively Ease as Product Introductions and Refreshes Commence Jul 20, 2016
Super Micro Cuts CQ2 ’16 Guide: 3rd Miss in 4 Quarters, Sharpest Cut Since Recession Jul 19, 2016
Ericsson CQ2 ’16 Results: First Y/Y Sales Decline in China in 3 Years; Inventory Days to 4 Year High Jul 19, 2016
Western Digital’s CQ2 ’16 Sales Marginally Above Guide; Severe HDD Headwinds May Subside as Reorganization Moves to Completion Jul 7, 2016
Himax’ DDIC Test Vendor ChipMOS Cuts 2H CY ’16 Sales Guide on Small Panel DDIC Softness Jul 7, 2016
Himax Updates CQ2 ’16 Guide: Sales Below High-End of Guide Prior to Key End Markets Softening, Did LCoS Sales Miss? Jul 5, 2016
Multi-Sourcing Continues as Fingerprint Sensor Market Competitively Crowds Jul 1, 2016
Divergence Between Park Electro’s PCB Materials and Xilinx’ Comms Segment Widest Since Early CY ’14 Jun 30, 2016
High End Smartphone Order Cuts Spreading Jun 27, 2016
UBNT: Elevated Channel Inventories Suggest 2H CY ’16 UniFi Risk Jun 24, 2016
ANET: ITC Rules Against Arista In ‘944 Case; Cisco Aggressively Questions US Manufacturing Workaround Jun 24, 2016
Consumer WiFi Router Landscape at Best Buy to Crowd Further as Luma Joins Eero Jun 16, 2016
Synaptics’ Fingerprint Sensor Share Loss At Samsung Begins; Problem Likely Expands to China Jun 15, 2016
HIMX: Augmented Reality The Key Selling Feature of Google’s First Project Tango Smartphone Jun 10, 2016
F5’s Installed Base Targeted for Refresh Is ~ 25% Larger vs. 2 years Ago Jun 9, 2016
Netgear Loses Consumer WLAN Share For 3rd Consecutive Quarter; Insider Sales Hit 5 Year High Jun 8, 2016
F5 Reportedly Hires Advisors Following Takeover Approaches Jun 8, 2016
Ambarella FQ1 ’17 Results: Are We Sure Competitors Won’t Seize on Sony Shortages? Jun 3, 2016
Consistent with Peers in Asia, Semtech Sees Weaker Base Station and Optical Demand Jun 2, 2016
Fingerprint Cards’s CEO Surprisingly Dismissed as Fingerprint Cards is Displaced at LG Jun 2, 2016
Ambarella to Report FQ4 ’16 Results: Hikvision’s CQ1 Was Their Worst Quarter in 5 Years; CY ’17 Estimates Remain Aggressive Jun 2, 2016
NTGR: Best Buy and NetApp CQ1 16 Results; Eero Home WiFi Distribution Expanding to Best Buy May 27, 2016
XLNX: We Suspect Analyst Day Guidance Will Again Prove Optimistic; We View Acquisition Probability As Low May 25, 2016
Google Looks to Eliminate Passwords; Samsung’s Iris Scanning Tablet; China Tablet with Precise Biometrics and Synaptics May 25, 2016
Google’s Daydream VR Does Not Appear Particularly Positive for Himax May 20, 2016
Google Unveils Internally Developed ASIC for Machine Learning May 19, 2016
Cisco’s Weakest CQ1 Routing + Switching Growth Since the 2008 / 2009 Recession May 19, 2016
We Add Oclaro to Our Idea Framework: The Other Side of Capacity Constrained Is Generally Less Enjoyable May 18, 2016
We Add Himax Technologies to Our Idea Framework: Large Display Concerns Now, Concerns Elsewhere Later May 16, 2016
FINGB SS: 2nd Largest Executive Shareholder Parts with 15% of His Equity May 11, 2016
Taiwan IC Distribution Below Seasonal April Sales as Manufacturing PMI Softens May 11, 2016
XLNX: Nokia Guides CY ’16 Networks Sales Down Y/Y; ZTE Weak CQ1 ’16 as Inventory Days Jump May 10, 2016
Ubiquiti Networks: Post CQ1 ’16 Financials The Outgoing CAO Did Not Sign, A New Consumer Division in Latvia May 10, 2016
Netgear CQ1 16 10Q: CQ1 ’16 Results Lower Quality Than We Prior Thought, Key Commercial Segment Partners Struggled in CQ1 ’16 May 9, 2016
Ubiquiti CQ1 ’16 Results: Balance Sheet Weakens as Y/Y Contraction Spreads From Service Provider Sales to R&D Spend May 6, 2016
Synaptics 10Q Review; FocalTech Ramping TDDI and On-Cell / In-Cell Touch in CQ2 ’16 May 5, 2016
Ubiquiti to Report CQ1 ’16 Results: Steep Compare at Flytec, Pricing Softness in UniFi AP’s May 5, 2016
Arista to Report CQ1 ’16 Results: Microsoft Tailwind to Headwind? May 5, 2016
Fingerprint Cards CQ1 ’16 Results: If Mediatek Is Worried About a Weak 2H CY ’16, Why Isn’t Fingerprint Cards? May 4, 2016
Intel Didn’t Grow DCG Sales by 15% in 2015, and Inputs Continue to Appear Softer Now vs. Then May 4, 2016
CQ1 ’16 Combined Arrow + Avnet Inventory Days: Largest Q/Q Increase in 10 Years; Fresh Post-Recession High May 3, 2016
Avnet Inventory Days Jump to 10 Year High, Components Results and Guide Well Below Seasonal May 2, 2016
SMCI CQ1’16 Results: Share Gains Continue to Require Free Cash Burn; Data Center Pricing Pressure Apr 29, 2016
SYNA CQ1 16 Results: Quarterly EPS Now Back to Pre-Validity and RSP Level; Materials Share Risks Remain Apr 29, 2016
Xilinx CQ1 ’16 Results: CQ2 ’16 Guidance Soft; Estimates Down, Risk Up Apr 28, 2016
Netgear CQ1 ’16 Results: Several Unsustainable One-Offs; Retail Segment Marginally Undershoots, Set to Slow Notably Apr 28, 2016
Synaptics to Report CQ1 ’16 Results: If Still Stand-Alone, We Focus to Apple’s OLED Intent & 2nd FP Source at Samsung Apr 28, 2016
NTGR Earnings Preview: Price Declines in Key Products, Very Difficult Best Buy Compares Apr 27, 2016
SYNA: May 2016 Options Activity Muted vs. April Activity Apr 27, 2016
XLNX Earnings Preview: Did Altera Gain Material Share in CQ1 16?; Secular Challenges Beyond 1H CY ’16 Apr 27, 2016
FINGB SS Earnings Preview: We Have Already Seen Competitive Displacements; Focus NT to Divergence w/ Module Vendors Apr 27, 2016
LLTC Q1’16 Review: Auto Risks as China’s 2015 Tax Cuts Expire, China’s EV Subsidiy Cuts Loom, BMS Competition Materializes Apr 26, 2016
XLNX: Ericsson Weak CQ1 16 Before China Rolls Over; Inventory Days Jump Apr 25, 2016
Risks to Intel’s Share Mounting; Intel + AMD Inventory Days Back to Post Recession High Apr 22, 2016
FFIV Q1’16 Results: More Aggressive Share Repurchase Lifts EPS, Multiple Product Initiatives Loom Apr 21, 2016
FINGB SS/SYNA: CQ1 ’16 Divergence b/t CrucialTec and Fingerprint Cards; Additional Wins for Qualcomm, Goodix, EgisTec Apr 21, 2016
INTC CQ1 ’16 Results: CQ2 ’16 DCG Sales Down Y/Y Again Suggests Risk to Annual DCG Target; Inventory Ex-ALTR Again Increases Apr 20, 2016
FFIV Earnings Preview: Peak Anxiety, Trough Valuation Apr 20, 2016
INTC Earnings Preview: Executive Departures Material, PC MPU Shipments Set to Comfortably Outpace PC Units Apr 19, 2016
ANET: Applied Opto’s Guide Cut Worth Noting Given Microsoft Exposure Apr 19, 2016
LLTC Earnings Preview: Relevant Cautionary Inputs Across Auto, Comms and Industrial Apr 19, 2016
The Latest “China Interest” Installment Intersects Reports of Apple OLED Adoption in 2017 Apr 15, 2016
The Latest “China Interest” Installment Intersects Reports of Apple OLED Adoption in 2017 Apr 15, 2016
Super Micro Cuts CQ1 ’16 Sales Guide: 2nd Cut in 3 Quarters, 3rd Miss to Guide Mid-Point in 5 Quarters Apr 15, 2016
Juniper’s CQ1 ’16 Guidance Cut Not a Great Input, But Recent F5 Checks Constructive Apr 13, 2016
Juniper’s Largest Sales Miss Since the Recession Follows Sharp Jump in Component Inventory Apr 12, 2016
WPG Holdings CQ1 ’16 Sales Well Below Seasonal and Below Guided Mid-Point Apr 11, 2016
FINGB / SYNA: Mediatek’s MStar Subsidiary Licenses Precise’s BioMatch Mobile; Elan Set to Ramp in CQ2 16 Apr 6, 2016
National Instruments Cuts Guide on Soft Industrial Post Anritsu’s Cut on Base Station Slump Apr 5, 2016
China Carrier Capex: CY ’16 Contraction Notably Worse Than Our Prior Estimates Mar 24, 2016
SMCI: We Add Super Micro to Our Idea Framework: Benefit From ASP’s and Softlayer Waning, Competitors Focused to Share Gains vs. Margins Mar 18, 2016
XLNX: China Unicom Guides to CY ’16 Capex Collapse as 4G LTE Spending Peak Passed Mar 16, 2016
XLNX: We Add Xilinx to Our Idea Framework: Forward Multiple Back to Peak as China’s 4G LTE Procurement Moves Late Innings Mar 7, 2016
AMBA: FQ4’16 Review: Gross Margin Compression Begins, Our Biggest Estimate Cut is to IP Security Cameras Mar 4, 2016
AMBA Earnings Preview: Set Up Doesn’t Seem Great In Either Direction, Focus to Gross Margin Commentary Mar 3, 2016
WLAN Competiton Mounts as Amazon Launch Pad Partner Eero Starts Shipping Home WiFi Mesh System Feb 24, 2016
NTGR 10K Review: At Least 50% Sales Growth and 86% A/R Dollar Growth to Best Buy During CY ’15; Adjusting Estimates on Tax Rate Feb 23, 2016
ANET: Lowering FV Target: Narrow Beat Despite Microsoft, Opex Again Materially Below Plan Is Arguably Concerning Feb 19, 2016
MRVL: CMU Settlement Another Incremental Positive: Elimination of Royalties Materially Outweighs Interest Income Feb 18, 2016
ANET Earnings Preview: LinkedIn The Latest Cloud Operator To Embrace White Box Switching Feb 18, 2016
January 2016 NB ODM Sales: Top 3 Vendors See Worst M/M Decline Since Recession, By A Wide Margin Feb 16, 2016
INTC: Cisco FQ2 ’16 UCS / Server Sales: First Ever Q/Q Decline During a FQ2, First Ever Y/Y Decline in Any Quarter Feb 11, 2016
FINGB SS: Lowering FV Target – CQ4 ’15 Results: Last Year Guidance Was Raised by 50%; This Year the Low End Was Bumped Up Feb 5, 2016
UBNT: Quality Suspect Again as Sales to Flytec Up At Least 48% Q/Q, A/R Dollars to PW Batna Up 42% Q/Q Feb 5, 2016
SYNA CQ4’15 10Q Filing: Amkor Lawsuit Disclosed, Validity Contingent Consideration Down Again; Force Touch Competitors Out Ahead Feb 4, 2016
NTGR Earnings Preview: Peak Arlo Growth, Retail Outlet Contraction, Focus to Service Provider Cadence Feb 4, 2016
UBNT Earnings Preview: Late Innings of UniFi Product Transitions, WISP Related Headwinds Intensify From Here Feb 4, 2016
IDTI: Target Attained – Removing Short From Our Idea Generation Framework Feb 3, 2016
MRVL: External Pressure Arrives While Marvell Underships HDD Consumption Feb 3, 2016
FINGB SS Earnings Preview:We Believe MWC Will Prove More Informative Than CQ4 ’15 Results Feb 3, 2016
IDTI CQ4’15 Results: Secular Slowing and Structural Pressures in Communications, Memory Interface More Challenging Prospectively Feb 2, 2016
SLAB Earnings Preview: We Believe Sustaining Premium Multiple For Inorganic Growth Will Prove Challenging Feb 2, 2016
IDTI Earnings Preview: Wireless Charging NT Wildcard, We Believe an Intermediate Term Comms Peak Looms Feb 1, 2016
SYNA: Synaptics CQ4 ’15 Results: No Growth Before Samsung Multi-Sources Fingerprint Sensors and AMOLED Adoption Broadens Jan 29, 2016
Semis: Avnet’s CQ1 ’16 Components Guide Well Below Seasonal, Highest Year-End Inventory Days Since 2008 Jan 28, 2016
SYNA Earnings Preview: Synaptics to Report CQ4 ’15 Results: Growth Pressures Mount, We Believe Margins Pressures Next Jan 28, 2016
CHKP Earnings Preview: Past The Billings Growth Peak, Scope For Below Consensus Margin Progression Jan 27, 2016
TXN Earnings Preview: Above Seasonal Sales Required For Each Quarter of CY ’16 Jan 27, 2016
AMBA: Axis CQ4 ’15 Results: Asia Pacific Sales Collapse on China, Inventory Days Spike Higher Jan 26, 2016
MXIM CQ4’15 Results: Highest Turns Required In Over A Decade, Risks Shift To Non-Consumer Beyond CQ1 ’16 Jan 25, 2016
INTC: Nidec Cuts CQ1 ’16 HDD TAM Outlook By ~ 1,200bps, Implies Steeper Q/Q TAM Decline vs. CQ1 ’15 Jan 22, 2016
SYNA: “State-Backed Chinese Group” Report Resurfaces: Insider Sales Were Noteworthy Last Time, Hurdles Remain Substantial Jan 21, 2016
FFIV: F5 CQ4 ’15 Results: 1H CY ’16 Product Trough Appears Set to Outperform 1H CY ’13 Product Trough Jan 21, 2016
MXIM Earnings Preview: Industrial Exposure Set to Decline, Samsung’s Bio-Processor Set to Debut Jan 21, 2016
INTC: Intel + AMD Combined Inventory Days Back Return to Historically Problematic Level Jan 20, 2016
FFIV Earnings Preview: F5 to Report CQ4 ’15 Results: Shares Within Throwing Distance of 2009 Trough Multiple Jan 20, 2016
FINGB SS: Sony Omits Fingerprint Sensor in US bound Z5; Two More Precise BioMatch Licensees Jan 19, 2016
ADI: Price Target Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Jan 19, 2016
LLTC Earnings Preview: Moving Past 14 Week Quarter; Sales Acceleration Required as ASP Stagnates Jan 19, 2016
INTC CQ4’15 Review: CQ4 Balance Sheet Metrics Weakest Since Recession, 3rd DCG Sales Miss in 4 Quarters Jan 15, 2016
Scope For Incremental China Carrier Capex Pressure as Unicom & Telecom To Share 4G LTE Equipment Jan 14, 2016
AMBA: GoPro Price Cuts Did Not Help, We Remind Hikvision Was Also Cutting Price Late in CQ4 ’15 Jan 14, 2016
INTC Earnings Preview: If DCG Didn’t Grow 15% in 2015, Unclear to Us Why It Will Happen in 2016 Jan 14, 2016
MXIM: Meter Reader Sale To Silergy Potentially EPS Dilutive, Bio-Processors Remain A Notable Risk Jan 8, 2016
FINGB / SYNA: Qualcomm’s First Commerical SenseID Deployment, EgisTec Area Sensor Progress Jan 6, 2016
UBNT: Ubiquiti’s WISP Product Struggles Continue; Competitive and Secular Pressures Mount Jan 6, 2016
Semis: December 2015 Global Manufacturing Detail: US Manufacturing Deterioiration Remains Most Noteworthy Jan 5, 2016
FINGB / SYNA: Precise Biometrics Licenses to China’s Largest Touch Controller and DDIC Vendor Dec 23, 2015
FINGB / SYNA: Precise Biometrics Wins Fingerprint Sensor Socket with Silead, Signs Another Chinese Licensee Dec 18, 2015
UBNT: Channel Frustration with UniFi WLAN Product Transitions; Brazil’s 2nd Cut to Junk Worth Noting for CY ’16 Dec 17, 2015
ADI / SYNA: Dialog Cuts CQ4 ’15 Sales Guide Following Pegatron’s Worst November Since 2008 Dec 15, 2015
FINGB SS: We Add Fingerprint Cards to Our Idea Framework: Software Industry Operating Margins Selling Fingerprint Sensors Not Likely To Last Long Dec 10, 2015
UBNT: One Year Removed From Last Major Distributor Addition, Ubiquiti Undergrows the Enterprise WLAN Market For the First Time Ever Dec 7, 2015
AMBA FQ3’16 Review: Are We Sure Drones in 2016 Aren’t GoPros in 2015? Aggressive Assumptions Yield No FY ’17 EPS Growth Dec 4, 2015
AMBA Earnings Preview: Unclear To Us Why FQ1 ’17 Will Be Well Above Seasonal, We Question Sustaining Gross Margin Dec 3, 2015
MXIM: Caution on Top Line, Potential Caution on Opex, No Reference to Samsung LSI’s Heart Rate Monitor Dec 2, 2015
ADI: We Add Analog Devices to Idea Our Framework: Apple FY ’15 Base, Structural 4G LTE Declines Causes for Caution Nov 30, 2015
NTGR: We Add Netgear to Our Idea Framework: Significant Arlo Channel Stocking in 2015 Creates Challenges in 2016 and Beyond Nov 23, 2015
SYNA: 2015 Analyst Day: TDDI Forecast Cut, Share Loss Across All Segments, Estimate Risks Remain Nov 18, 2015
FFIV: We Add F5 Networks To Our Idea Framework: Multiple at 5 Year Low as Product Growth Acceleration Looms Nov 17, 2015
INTC / TXN: Compal’s NB Unit Guide Even Worse Than Peers as “Market Demand Becomes Very Soft” Nov 12, 2015
INTC / TXN: Taiwan NB ODM Inventory Days Rise to Multi-Years High, Tawain PC OEM Inventory Days Hold Near Multi-Years Highs Nov 11, 2015
UBNT: Ubiquiti CQ3 ’15 Results: “Saturation” and “Stocking the Shelves” Intersect Biggest Decline in R&D Spend on Record Nov 6, 2015
FEYE: Price Target Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Nov 6, 2015
UBNT Earnings Preview: WISP Industry Pressures Set to Increase Meaningfully Nov 5, 2015
ANET Earnings Preview: Slowest Domestic Cloud Capex Growth in > 3 Years Nov 5, 2015
FEYE Earnings Preview: Risks to Sustaining Growth As Parabolic Opex Slows, Demand Normalizes and Competition Intensifies Nov 4, 2015
AMBA: Ambarella’s Largest Distributor Guides CQ4 ’15 Sales Down Q/Q, Again Below Seasonal, Again Below Consensus Nov 4, 2015
IDTI 10Q Review: Sell-INTO Uniquest Declines ~ 20% Q/Q, Fortuitously Offset By Hynix Appearing as > 10% Customer For The First Time Nov 3, 2015
UBNT FY ’15 Proxy: Share Repurchases Since CQ2 ’15 Appear to Exceed Domestic Cash, What Happened to the CTO? Oct 30, 2015
IDTI: Cavium’s Ramping Fusion-M Suggests Secular Risk Potential to IDT’s SRIO Switches in CY ’16 Oct 29, 2015
AMBA: GoPro’s Sell Through Well Below Plan, Excessive Channel Inventory, All Time High Inventory Days Oct 29, 2015
ANET: Broadcom’s CQ3 ’15 Ethernet Switch Sales Decline as Cloud Capex Hits a Soft Patch Oct 29, 2015
TXN / MXIM: Latest Report Would Require Mr. Templeton to Have Notably Changed His Thinking Oct 29, 2015
TXN / LLTC: Arrow CQ3 ’15 Component Sales ~ 200bps Below Guide, Inventory Days Hold Near Post-Recession Highs Oct 28, 2015
IDTI CQ3’15 Review: Several Other Points in the Comms Supply Chain See 2H CY ’15 Quite Differently Oct 27, 2015
AMBA: Qualcomm Competition Extends to IP Security Cameras Oct 27, 2015
IDTI Earnings Preview: Near Term Inputs At Best Mixed, Intermediate Term Growth Progressively More Challenging Oct 26, 2015
MXIM CQ3’15 Review: 5th Revenue Miss in 6 Quarters Oct 26, 2015
CHKP Earnings Preview: In-Line Quarter and Guide From Fortinet Not Well Received Oct 23, 2015
SYNA CQ3’15 Review: Downwardly Revised FY ’16 Guide Suggests Lower Probability on GS7 Force Touch, Renesas Restructuring? Oct 23, 2015
SYNA Earnings Preview: Several Moving Pieces, Insider Selling Noteworthy Oct 22, 2015
TXN CQ3’15 Review: > 15% Customer in Analog a Risk for CQ1 ’16 and CY ’16, Opex More Noteworthy Than Sales Oct 22, 2015
TXN Earnings Preview: Above Seasonal Sales Modeled Through CQ1 ’17, Inventory In Focus Oct 21, 2015
AMBA: Hikvision CQ3 ’15 Sales Again Below Consensus, DSO Rises, Gross Margin Declines Oct 21, 2015
AMBA: Ambarella Announces New Drone SoC’s as US Reportedly Set to Impose Mandatory Drone Registration Oct 19, 2015
UBNT: Another Director and Audit Commitee Member Removes Himself from Ubiquiti’s Board Oct 19, 2015
SYNA: September 2015 Sales Well Below Seasonal, Scope for Continued CQ4 ’15 Softness Oct 16, 2015
MXIM: Analog Devices’ Reported Interest In a Lower Quality Asset At a Premium Valuation Confusing to Us Oct 15, 2015
INTC CQ3’15 Review: Data Center Group To Miss CAGR Target for 3rd Time in 5 Years Oct 14, 2015
UBNT: WISP Response to Ubiquiti’s SunMax: “It Might As Well Have Been a Line of Pool Products” Oct 14, 2015
LLTC Earnings Preview: Unclear to Us Why All 4 Quarters of CY ’16 Will Be Above Seasonal Oct 13, 2015
INTC Earnings Preview: We Believe PC Optimism Will Fade, Server Concerns Will Rise Oct 13, 2015
INTC: EMC CQ3 ’15 Total Sales Below Consensus With or Without $100M in Unshipped Storage Products Oct 12, 2015
IDTI: In First Quarter Post Win2003 Server Suport Expiring, SuperMicro Cuts Guide For First Time in 3 Years Oct 9, 2015
INTC: CQ3 ’15 PC Shipments Underwhelming Despite Lenovo Price Hikes, PC Build Momentum Softens Into CQ4 ’15 Oct 9, 2015
LLTC / TXN: Global Manufacturing Detail for September 2015: US Manufacturing Data Arguably Most Concerning Oct 2, 2015
SYNA: If CFIUS Has Hung Up NXP over ~ 1% of RF Revenues, How Would Selling Fingerprint Authentication to China Fare? Oct 1, 2015
MRVL: Mobile Restructuring: Decent First Step, Base Business R&D Spend Should Be The Next Area Of Meaningful Cost Savings Sep 25, 2015
MRVL: We Add Marvell Technology to Idea Our Framework: E/V to Sales Needed Actions Sep 18, 2015
GPRO: Price Target Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Sep 14, 2015
ANET: ITC Staff Favors Cisco in 944 Hearing with Presiding Judge a Former ITC Staff Attorney Sep 11, 2015
AMBA 10Q Review: Purchase Commits Down; AllWinner Added to Competitor Roster Sep 9, 2015
Semiconductor Industry Enters Y/Y Contraction; If Sustained, History Suggests Not A Great Time to Own Semiconductor Shares Sep 9, 2015
AMBA FQ2’16 Review: First Below Consensus Sales Guide On Record; Heightened Competition Likely Intersects Slowing Consumption Sep 2, 2015
10th Consecutive Month of Y/Y Contraction in Global Manufacturing PMI; US New Orders Deteriorate Sharply Sep 1, 2015
AMBA Earnings Preview: Scope For Less Seasonal 2H CY ’15 Trending; ISP’s Unlikely to Sustain as Most Profitable Fabless Category Sep 1, 2015
CQ2 ’15 Server Units Below Seasonal Ahead of WinServer2003 Expiry, Gartner Suggests International Budgets Pulled Forward on Currency Concerns Aug 27, 2015
SYNA 10K Review: Validity Contingent Consideration Reduced for 4th Consecutive Quarter Aug 26, 2015
UBNT: As EM Currencies Collapse QTD, Cambium Joins Ruckus and Google in Offering 802.11AC WLAN AP’s Cheaper than Ubiquiti’s UniFi Aug 26, 2015
INTC: HP’s PC Channel Inventory Commentary the Opposite of Intel’s, HP’s Inventory Days to Post Recession High Aug 21, 2015
Analog Devices’ FQ3 ’15: Ex-Consumer Sales Guide Implies Sharpest Drop since 2012, Asian Distributors All Sink to 52 Week Lows Aug 19, 2015
UBNT: Google Now a WLAN Competitor, Google Partners with Vivint as SunMax Trademark Application Is Suspended Aug 19, 2015
IDTI: Uniquest CQ2 ’15 Results: Sharpest Q/Q Sales Decline in At Least 3 Years, Inventory Days Again Rise Sharply Aug 13, 2015
China’s Passenger Car Sales Decline Y/Y For 2nd Consecutive Month For First Time Since 2008 Aug 12, 2015
INVN: Price Target Attained – Removing From Our Idea Generation Framework Aug 11, 2015
Asustek Guides CQ3 ’15 NB Units Below Seasonal; Acer + Asus Inventory Days to Fresh All Time High Aug 11, 2015
AMBA / GPRO: Chicony June 2015 Sales: CQ3 ’15 Starts Out Slowly Aug 7, 2015
UBNT CQ2’15 Review: Not The First Mention of Ubiquiti and a Hong Kong Bank, Risks Broadly Escalating Aug 7, 2015
UBNT Earnings Preview: D-Link Trajectory Relevant, Regulatory and Competitive Headwinds Mount Aug 6, 2015
IDTI 10Q Review: High Wire Act Manifests in Collapse In Memory Interface Sales, Spike in Legacy Comms Sales Aug 6, 2015
AMBA: Ambarella’s Largest Distributor Guides CQ3 ’15 Sales Down Q/Q, Meaningfully Below Seasonal Aug 5, 2015
INVN CQ2’15 Review: If Samsung is Multi-Sourcing, Why Won’t Apple? Aug 5, 2015
INVN Earnings Preview: Growth Challenges At Odds With Valuation Premium to RF Vendors Aug 4, 2015
IDTI CQ2’15 Review: Line Item High Wire Act Extends to Communications Guide, Increased Cause for Concern into CY ’16 Aug 4, 2015
IDTI Earnings Preview: DDR3 Also Matters, Communications Headwinds Mount Aug 3, 2015
Mediatek Guides CQ4 ’15 Smartphone Units Down Q/Q, Citing “Anti-Seasonality” Jul 31, 2015
Synaptics CQ2’15 Review: Organic Sales Down > 20% Y/Y Before Area Sensor ASP Declines; FY ’16 Guide Low Probability Jul 31, 2015
FEYE Earnings Preview: No Reason Results Shouldn’t Be Above Guide; Duration Remains Our Concern Jul 30, 2015
Synaptics Earnings Preview: Sustaining 100% Share of Samsung and Apple In Perpetuity Required Jul 30, 2015
Hikvision CQ2 ’15 Sales: Growth Still Elevated, But Decelerating; Slowing China Factory Automation Spend Noteworthy Jul 29, 2015
SLAB Earnings Preview: TV Panels Remain Soft into CQ3 ’15, Estimates A High Bar If (When) Access Sales Revert Jul 28, 2015
GoPro CQ2’15 10Q Review: Factored Receivables Up, BestBuy Sell-IN Up, Raw Materials Inventory Up Jul 27, 2015
MXIM CQ2’15 Review: 4th Revenue Miss in 5 Quarters, 3rd Restructuring in 4 Quarters Jul 24, 2015
Y/Y Declines Worsen in Both China’s and Germany’s Flash Manufacturing PMI Jul 24, 2015
MXIM Earnings Preview: How 30% Operating Margin is as Relevant as Attainment Itself Jul 23, 2015
TXN CQ2’15 Review: First Consecutive Revenue Misses Since 2008, Inventory Up Again, R&D Down Again Jul 23, 2015
TXN Earnings Preview: Above Seasonal Sales Modeled Through 2016, Inventory In Focus Jul 22, 2015
Apple iPhone Units ~ 10% Below Expectations, Difficult to See Reduction in Channel Inventory As Positive Jul 22, 2015
GPRO CQ2’15 Review: 60% Growth in Retail Outlets Over Roughly One Year, A Pace ~ 3x Faster Than Netgear Jul 22, 2015
LLTC Earnings Preview: Consumption Headwinds Intersect Above Seasonal 2H ’15 Estimates Jul 21, 2015
CHKP Earnings Preview: Tides Eventually Go Out, Evolving Competitive Landscape Pressures Profitability Jul 21, 2015
GPRO Earnings Preview: Previously Undisclosed Products Aid Near Term Sell-IN, Hero 4 Sessions Underwhelms Enthusiasts Jul 21, 2015
INTC CQ2’15 Review: Balance Sheet More Noteworthy Than Income Statement, Risk Shifts to Data Center and Mobile Jul 19, 2015
Google’s CQ2 ’15 Capex: First Consecutive Q/Q Declines Since 2009, First Y/Y Decline Since 2012 Jul 17, 2015
TSM CQ2’15 Results: TSM Will Beat Intel to 10nm, Weak CQ3 ’15 Guide, Record DOI Jul 16, 2015
INTC Earnings Preview: Near Term, Well Vetted; Long Term, Less So Jul 15, 2015
UBNT: Checks Show Anemic AirFiber 5X Volumes; 2 Latin American Resellers’ Websites Dead-End as Venezuelan Users Complain of Currency Restrictions Jul 15, 2015
AMBA: Leading IP Security Camera Vendor Axis Local Currency Sales Growth Goes Negative Jul 10, 2015
8th Consecutive Month of Y/Y Contraction in Global Manufacturing PMI; US Auto Consumption Joins Softness Elsewhere Jul 7, 2015
GoPro Mimics Polaroid’s Cube For > 2x the Price; Chicony’s CQ2 ’15 Sales Underwhelm Jul 7, 2015